The top seven seeds are still alive, so in the big picture, not much has changed since I posted pre-tournament odds. The big names have all seen their chances of winning creep up a little bit, largely because they’ve gotten past the dangers of the first two rounds. Some upsets elsewhere in the draw have helped, as well.
The biggest winner on that score is Juan Martin del Potro, whose chances have jumped from 2.6% to 4.2%, as he’s been granted what should be two easy matches before a quarterfinal showdown with Roger Federer.
Player R16 QF SF W (1)Novak Djokovic 91.9% 76.3% 59.2% 26.7% Nicolas Mahut 8.1% 2.6% 0.7% 0.0% (23)Milos Raonic 79.8% 19.3% 9.0% 1.1% (WC)Lleyton Hewitt 20.2% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% (9)Janko Tipsarevic 54.6% 28.4% 8.9% 1.3% (17)Richard Gasquet 45.4% 21.7% 5.9% 0.7% (27)Juan Ignacio Chela 13.9% 2.3% 0.2% 0.0% (5)David Ferrer 86.1% 47.7% 15.8% 2.7% Player R16 QF SF W (4)Andy Murray 81.4% 55.6% 34.5% 10.4% Michael Llodra 18.6% 6.6% 2.0% 0.1% Mikhail Kukushkin 23.8% 4.8% 1.2% 0.0% (14)Gael Monfils 76.2% 33.0% 16.3% 2.9% Julien Benneteau 31.6% 8.8% 2.3% 0.1% (24)Kei Nishikori 68.4% 29.6% 12.4% 1.8% Frederico Gil 8.8% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% (6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 91.2% 60.1% 31.3% 7.3% Player R16 QF SF W Alejandro Falla 35.9% 9.6% 1.9% 0.1% Philipp Kohlschreiber 64.1% 24.7% 7.3% 0.5% Yen-Hsun Lu 21.6% 9.1% 1.8% 0.1% (11)Juan Martin Del Potro 78.4% 56.5% 26.4% 4.6% (13)Alexandr Dolgopolov 49.2% 16.3% 8.3% 0.9% Bernard Tomic 50.8% 17.2% 8.7% 1.0% Ivo Karlovic 18.4% 7.0% 2.8% 0.2% (3)Roger Federer 81.6% 59.5% 42.8% 13.2% Player R16 QF SF W (7)Tomas Berdych 71.3% 44.9% 20.9% 4.4% (30)Kevin Anderson 28.7% 12.0% 3.3% 0.2% (21)Stanislas Wawrinka 64.6% 31.0% 12.3% 1.8% (10)Nicolas Almagro 35.4% 12.2% 3.3% 0.2% (16)John Isner 55.1% 17.1% 7.7% 0.9% (18)Feliciano Lopez 44.9% 12.4% 5.0% 0.5% (q)Lukas Lacko 13.2% 4.4% 1.2% 0.0% (2)Rafael Nadal 86.8% 66.1% 46.4% 16.1%