A lot has changed in the last few months of men’s tennis, yet as far as one computer is concerned, all the important things have remained the same.
Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal limped to the finish line of the 2011 season, while Andy Murray didn’t even get through the round robin in London. All the while, Roger Federer re-asserted his dominance, winning the last three events of the year. For all that, my rankings can’t ignore Djokovic’s dominance over the last year, nor Nadal’s before that.
My simulation of the Australian Open draw gives a heavy edge to Novak Djokovic, with a 25.8% chance of winning it all. Nadal is next at 15.1%, followed by Federer at 12.7% and Murray at 9.3%. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, at 5.3%, is the only other man with better than a one in twenty chance of winning the slam.
Djokovic also has the most lopsided first-round match. Paolo Lorenzi just barely snuck into the main draw, and he’ll likely be on a flight home in a couple of days. Almost as likely to make first-round exits are Aussie wildcards Benjamin Mitchell and James Duckworth, who play John Isner and Jurgen Zopp, respectively. Yes, Duckworth’s resume is so sparse that my system gives him less than a one-in-ten chance of beating the Estonian qualifier. I wouldn’t recommend running to your bookie with that one–it says more about Duckworth’s lack of high-level match play than it does about Zopp’s potential for dominance.
As always, the first round promises to full of tight contests, even while the seeds coast through.
- My system gives Cedrik-Marcel Stebe a 70% chance of beating Lleyton Hewitt; that’s a reflection of how the Aussie’s health has hindered him for so long.
- Speaking of Aussies, Bernard Tomic is set to upset 27th seed Fernando Verdasco. My numbers put the youngster at 52.5%.
- Ivo Karlovic is always a threat, and my system gives him a 49% chance of beating Jurgen Melzer.
- Juan Ignacio Chela keeps earning seeds, but I keep betting against him. This time, my system gives Michael Russell a 55% chance of scoring a first-round upset over the clay-court specialist.
- The opening match between Michael Llodra and Ernests Gulbis is more likely to be lost than won. I predict Llodra will lose it.
- Thomaz Bellucci and Dudi Sela are as close as they come. My system gives the Israeli a tiny edge of 50.4% to 49.6%.
- Even closer are Alejandro Falla and Fabio Fognini, at 49.9%/50.1%. Falla is dangerous, and Fognini is a threat to himself.
- Philipp Kohlschreiber is always a dark horse, and my system suggests he’s nearly even (46.9%) with first-round opponent Juan Monaco.
- British qualifier James Ward lucked into a friendly draw against Blaz Kavcic. I give the Brit a 48.4% chance.
The results of my full draw simulation are below.
(If you’re interested in my ranking system, click here. Once I have rankings, I use the draw to “play” the tournament 1,000,000 times.)
Player R64 R32 R16 W (1)Novak Djokovic 96.0% 85.6% 77.8% 25.8% Paolo Lorenzi 4.1% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% Santiago Giraldo 80.3% 12.2% 7.4% 0.1% (q)Matteo Viola 19.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.0% (WC)Tatsuma Ito 63.7% 25.8% 3.1% 0.0% Potito Starace 36.3% 10.4% 0.8% 0.0% Nicolas Mahut 39.3% 22.8% 3.0% 0.0% (29)Radek Stepanek 60.7% 41.1% 7.4% 0.1% Player R64 R32 R16 W (23)Milos Raonic 90.5% 60.8% 35.8% 0.9% Filippo Volandri 9.5% 1.7% 0.3% 0.0% Lukas Rosol 39.3% 12.5% 4.4% 0.0% Philipp Petzschner 60.7% 25.0% 11.3% 0.1% Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 70.3% 30.7% 13.9% 0.1% (WC)Lleyton Hewitt 29.7% 7.4% 2.0% 0.0% Robin Haase 35.6% 18.9% 8.0% 0.0% (15)Andy Roddick 64.4% 43.0% 24.3% 0.6% Player R64 R32 R16 W (9)Janko Tipsarevic 68.8% 50.7% 30.5% 1.1% Dmitry Tursunov 31.2% 17.6% 7.3% 0.0% (q)Jurgen Zopp 94.0% 31.4% 11.6% 0.0% (WC)James Duckworth 6.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Mikhail Youzhny 64.6% 31.6% 16.4% 0.3% (q)Andrey Golubev 35.4% 12.2% 4.5% 0.0% Andreas Seppi 39.6% 19.6% 9.2% 0.1% (17)Richard Gasquet 60.4% 36.6% 20.5% 0.5% Player R64 R32 R16 W (27)Juan Ignacio Chela 44.9% 20.6% 4.4% 0.0% Michael Russell 55.1% 27.7% 6.7% 0.0% Igor Kunitsyn 61.0% 34.0% 9.3% 0.0% Pablo Andujar 39.0% 17.6% 3.3% 0.0% Matthias Bachinger 53.5% 16.6% 10.6% 0.0% Ryan Sweeting 46.5% 13.2% 8.0% 0.0% Rui Machado 10.2% 2.6% 1.0% 0.0% (5)David Ferrer 89.8% 67.7% 56.8% 2.6% Player R64 R32 R16 W (4)Andy Murray 82.4% 71.1% 57.3% 9.2% Ryan Harrison 17.6% 10.1% 4.9% 0.0% Xavier Malisse 58.9% 12.4% 5.5% 0.0% Edouard Roger-Vasselin 41.1% 6.5% 2.3% 0.0% Michael Llodra 42.0% 24.4% 7.4% 0.1% Ernests Gulbis 58.0% 38.2% 13.8% 0.3% Daniel Gimeno-Traver 41.4% 13.6% 2.8% 0.0% (32)Alex Bogomolov Jr 58.6% 23.7% 6.1% 0.0% Player R64 R32 R16 W (19)Viktor Troicki 73.7% 43.4% 19.4% 0.3% Juan Carlos Ferrero 26.3% 8.9% 2.2% 0.0% Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 55.6% 27.8% 10.8% 0.1% Mikhail Kukushkin 44.4% 19.9% 6.8% 0.0% Thomaz Bellucci 49.6% 15.3% 6.9% 0.0% Dudi Sela 50.4% 15.3% 6.8% 0.0% (WC)Marinko Matosevic 16.9% 6.5% 2.2% 0.0% (14)Gael Monfils 83.1% 62.9% 45.0% 2.6% Player R64 R32 R16 W (12)Gilles Simon 83.5% 57.3% 31.7% 1.0% (q)Danai Udomchoke 16.5% 5.0% 1.1% 0.0% Julien Benneteau 66.3% 28.0% 12.0% 0.1% Karol Beck 33.7% 9.7% 2.8% 0.0% Joao Souza 31.2% 5.6% 1.2% 0.0% Matthew Ebden 68.8% 21.3% 7.8% 0.0% Stephane Robert 15.9% 6.8% 1.7% 0.0% (24)Kei Nishikori 84.1% 66.3% 41.7% 1.9% Player R64 R32 R16 W (26)Marcel Granollers 75.3% 51.0% 23.6% 0.8% (WC)Jesse Levine 24.7% 10.3% 2.6% 0.0% Frederico Gil 23.7% 4.9% 0.8% 0.0% Ivan Dodig 76.3% 33.8% 12.2% 0.1% (q)Roberto Bautista-Agut 57.2% 11.1% 3.4% 0.0% Ricardo Mello 42.8% 6.7% 1.8% 0.0% Denis Istomin 19.6% 12.3% 4.9% 0.0% (6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 80.4% 70.0% 50.6% 5.3% Player R64 R32 R16 W (8)Mardy Fish 77.6% 60.5% 42.1% 2.3% Gilles Muller 22.4% 11.1% 4.5% 0.0% Alejandro Falla 49.9% 14.1% 5.6% 0.0% Fabio Fognini 50.1% 14.3% 5.9% 0.0% Albert Montanes 62.9% 19.0% 5.5% 0.0% Pere Riba 37.1% 7.5% 1.5% 0.0% Philipp Kohlschreiber 46.9% 33.9% 15.5% 0.2% (25)Juan Monaco 53.1% 39.6% 19.4% 0.3% Player R64 R32 R16 W (20)Florian Mayer 71.3% 51.0% 27.1% 0.9% Yen-Hsun Lu 28.7% 14.7% 4.9% 0.0% (q)Florent Serra 31.9% 7.6% 1.7% 0.0% Steve Darcis 68.1% 26.6% 9.8% 0.1% (q)James Ward 48.4% 11.6% 4.0% 0.0% Blaz Kavcic 51.6% 13.1% 4.8% 0.0% Adrian Mannarino 27.2% 16.7% 7.6% 0.1% (11)Juan Martin Del Potro 72.8% 58.7% 40.1% 2.6% Player R64 R32 R16 W (13)Alexandr Dolgopolov 75.2% 55.5% 29.3% 0.7% (WC)Greg Jones 24.8% 12.3% 3.5% 0.0% Tobias Kamke 68.7% 25.4% 8.5% 0.0% Victor Hanescu 31.3% 6.8% 1.3% 0.0% (WC)Kenny De Schepper 18.2% 2.9% 0.7% 0.0% Sam Querrey 81.8% 37.5% 21.0% 0.4% Bernard Tomic 52.5% 31.9% 19.3% 0.5% (22)Fernando Verdasco 47.5% 27.7% 16.3% 0.4% Player R64 R32 R16 W (31)Jurgen Melzer 51.0% 38.6% 10.8% 0.1% Ivo Karlovic 49.0% 36.5% 10.1% 0.1% Carlos Berlocq 36.9% 6.9% 0.7% 0.0% (q)Jesse Huta Galung 63.1% 18.0% 2.8% 0.0% Eric Prodon 19.8% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% Andreas Beck 80.2% 14.0% 6.4% 0.0% (q)Alexander Kudryavtsev 9.6% 4.6% 1.7% 0.0% (3)Roger Federer 90.4% 80.3% 67.4% 12.7% Player R64 R32 R16 W (7)Tomas Berdych 87.9% 72.2% 54.5% 4.3% Albert Ramos 12.1% 4.8% 1.4% 0.0% Olivier Rochus 65.4% 17.1% 7.7% 0.0% (q)Bjorn Phau 34.6% 5.8% 1.8% 0.0% Sergiy Stakhovsky 65.3% 34.3% 12.4% 0.1% (q)Illya Marchenko 34.7% 13.0% 3.2% 0.0% (q)Frederik Nielsen 27.4% 9.7% 2.1% 0.0% (30)Kevin Anderson 72.6% 43.1% 17.0% 0.2% Player R64 R32 R16 W (21)Stanislas Wawrinka 76.0% 45.9% 31.1% 1.2% Benoit Paire 24.0% 8.0% 3.2% 0.0% Marcos Baghdatis 71.9% 37.4% 23.8% 0.7% Benjamin Becker 28.1% 8.6% 3.4% 0.0% Jeremy Chardy 54.8% 29.2% 11.9% 0.1% Grigor Dimitrov 45.2% 21.7% 7.8% 0.0% Lukasz Kubot 40.4% 17.4% 5.6% 0.0% (10)Nicolas Almagro 59.6% 31.6% 13.1% 0.1% Player R64 R32 R16 W (16)John Isner 94.2% 53.0% 32.2% 0.8% (WC)Benjamin Mitchell 5.8% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% Jarkko Nieminen 33.2% 11.9% 5.2% 0.0% David Nalbandian 66.8% 34.6% 20.7% 0.5% Flavio Cipolla 36.4% 14.4% 4.4% 0.0% Nikolay Davydenko 63.6% 33.6% 14.9% 0.1% Leonardo Mayer 24.8% 8.0% 1.9% 0.0% (18)Feliciano Lopez 75.2% 44.1% 20.7% 0.3% Player R64 R32 R16 W (28)Ivan Ljubicic 62.6% 37.8% 10.7% 0.2% (q)Lukas Lacko 37.4% 18.1% 3.7% 0.0% (q)Peter Gojowczyk 19.2% 3.7% 0.4% 0.0% Donald Young 80.8% 40.4% 10.3% 0.1% Tommy Haas 34.1% 1.8% 0.3% 0.0% (q)Denis Kudla 65.9% 6.1% 1.6% 0.0% (q)Alex Kuznetsov 10.1% 6.8% 2.4% 0.0% (2)Rafael Nadal 89.9% 85.3% 70.7% 15.1%