Continuing with our point-by-point player profiles, let’s look at David Ferrer. He is firmly on the outside of the big four, but remains a threat, especially on clay.
Using all of his grand slam matches from 2011, we can begin to analyzes his tendencies on serve and return.
The first table shows the frequency of different outcomes in the deuce court, in the ad court, and on break point, relative to Ferrer’s average. For instance, the 1.014 in the upper left corner means that Ferrer wins 1.2% more points than average in the deuce court.
OUTCOME Deuce Ad Break
Point% 1.012 0.986 0.914
Aces 1.018 0.980 0.940
Svc Wnr 1.082 0.909 0.899
Dbl Faults 0.993 1.008 0.256
1st Sv In 0.991 1.010 0.983
Server Wnr 0.945 1.061 0.855
Server UE 0.988 1.013 1.012
Return Wnr 0.909 1.102 0.490
Returner Wnr 0.956 1.048 1.458
Returner UE 0.938 1.069 0.898
Rally Len 0.960 1.044 1.031
Of all the players we’ve looked at so far, Ferrer has the smallest differences between serving in the deuce and ad courts. Double faults and first serve rate are almost exactly even. He also seems to have figured out how to guarantee a rally at break point, with virtually no double faults and almost as few return winners. It doesn’t translate into an impressive number of break points won, though.
Next, this is how he performs on a point-by-point basis. Win% shows what percentage of points he wins at that score; Exp is how many he would be expected to win (given how he performs in each match), and Rate is the difference between the two. A rate above 1 means he plays better on those points; below 1 is worse.
SCORE Pts Win% Exp Rate
g0-0 279 72.0% 68.6% 1.05
g0-15 76 57.9% 67.7% 0.86
g0-30 32 50.0% 66.1% 0.76
g0-40 16 50.0% 64.0% 0.78
g15-0 200 77.0% 69.0% 1.12
g15-15 90 68.9% 68.6% 1.00
g15-30 44 65.9% 66.6% 0.99
g15-40 23 65.2% 65.9% 0.99
g30-0 154 66.9% 69.2% 0.97
g30-15 113 68.1% 69.2% 0.98
g30-30 65 67.7% 67.0% 1.01
g30-40 36 66.7% 66.3% 1.01
g40-0 103 67.0% 69.7% 0.96
g40-15 111 69.4% 69.3% 1.00
g40-30 78 61.5% 67.8% 0.91
g40-40 98 69.4% 65.2% 1.06
g40-AD 30 60.0% 64.0% 0.94
gAD-40 68 61.8% 65.7% 0.94
The sample sizes are small, but it’s still distressing to see Ferrer’s performance at 0-15, 0-30, and 0-40. Anecdotally, it seems that when shorter players don’t have their serve working for them, they can get broken in a hurry. Beyond that, there aren’t a lot of strong tendencies here; I’m sure Ferrer would like to win a few more points at AD-40, but that’s about all.
Serving Against Ferrer
We can go through the same exercises for Ferrer’s return points. The next two tables are trickier to read. Look at them as Serving against Ferrer. Thus, the number in the upper-left corner means that when serving against him, players win 4.7% more points than average in the deuce court; he is a better returner in the ad court. That’s partly attributable to the fact that righties serve better in the deuce court, but Ferrer’s tendencies are considerably more pronounced.
(I’ve excluded return points against lefty servers. Since lefties and righties have such different serving tendencies, limiting the sample to righty servers gives us clearer results, even as the sample shrinks a bit.)
OUTCOME Deuce Ad Break
Point% 1.047 0.948 0.910
Aces 0.964 1.039 0.244
Svc Wnr 1.102 0.888 0.762
Dbl Faults 0.799 1.221 1.172
1st Sv In 1.040 0.956 1.004
Server Wnr 1.017 0.982 0.802
Server UE 0.877 1.135 1.260
Return Wnr 1.328 0.639 0.701
Returner Wnr 1.084 0.908 1.029
Returner UE 1.074 0.918 0.945
Rally Len 0.959 1.046 1.168
These are some confusing numbers. Ferrer wins more points in the ad court, more than would be expected against right-handed servers. It appears that his opponents know he is more dangerous returning in the ad court; they go for more on the first serve, double-faulting more oftne and landing fewer first serves. But Ferrer hits far more winners, both on the return and later in the point, in the deuce court. It may be that Ferrer’s ad-court return is good enough to set up the point in his favor, but rarely good enough to push the point to a quick conclusion.
Also of note is Ferrer’s returning on break point. Maybe it’s just a fluke; reducing aces to one-quarter of their usual rate is remarkable.
Here’s more on Ferrer’s return game, again with numbers from the perspective of players serving against him.
SCORE Pts Win% Exp Rate
g0-0 273 58.6% 58.3% 1.01
g0-15 113 59.3% 57.5% 1.03
g0-30 46 56.5% 55.5% 1.02
g0-40 20 65.0% 56.0% 1.16
g15-0 158 53.8% 58.7% 0.92
g15-15 140 63.6% 57.7% 1.10
g15-30 77 50.6% 56.4% 0.90
g15-40 51 54.9% 55.0% 1.00
g30-0 85 63.5% 60.5% 1.05
g30-15 120 61.7% 58.0% 1.06
g30-30 85 52.9% 57.3% 0.92
g30-40 68 51.5% 56.8% 0.91
g40-0 54 59.3% 62.0% 0.96
g40-15 96 64.6% 59.2% 1.09
g40-30 79 57.0% 57.8% 0.99
g40-40 143 58.0% 55.7% 1.04
g40-AD 60 53.3% 54.9% 0.97
gAD-40 83 49.4% 56.3% 0.88
Unlike in his service game, Ferrer is more successful than expected at 40-AD and AD-40, winning more than half of return points at AD-40. He also excels at 15-30, 30-30, and 30-40, suggesting that he may be a bit streaky, returning well when he works himself into a hard-fought game.