It’s tricky to do these at the beginning of tournaments this time of year — the first round is underway before the final of the previous event is over, and before the qualifying event is completed. But the schedule does tighten up later in the week, so it makes sense to run projections before the round of 16, all of those matches are set and none have been played.
I would make my usual comment about my system underrating Nadal’s dominance, but Rafa did lose a set today to Paolo Lorenzi. I don’t think Rafa will lose before the final, but it does put things in perspective a bit.
Player QF SF F W (1)Rafael Nadal 83.3% 69.2% 47.9% 31.1% Feliciano Lopez 16.7% 7.8% 2.4% 0.7% (11)Mardy Fish 47.9% 11.0% 3.6% 1.1% Marin Cilic 52.1% 12.1% 4.0% 1.1% (3)Roger Federer 80.6% 60.8% 31.1% 17.3% (16)Richard Gasquet 19.4% 8.9% 2.1% 0.5% (LL)Jarkko Nieminen 22.5% 2.8% 0.3% 0.0% (7)Tomas Berdych 77.5% 27.6% 8.5% 3.0% Player QF SF F W Florian Mayer 70.4% 21.6% 4.5% 0.9% Juan Ignacio Chela 29.6% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% Potito Starace 11.4% 3.9% 0.4% 0.0% (4)Andy Murray 88.6% 69.8% 29.4% 11.9% (5)Robin Soderling 62.7% 23.6% 13.6% 5.3% (9)Nicolas Almagro 37.3% 9.2% 4.1% 1.1% (14)Stanislas Wawrinka 18.5% 7.7% 3.4% 0.9% (2)Novak Djokovic 81.5% 59.4% 44.0% 25.0%