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It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP Challenger matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly. Last update: 2017-03-20

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPW
2017-01-02Bangkok CHR16Jeremy JahnDi Wu6-3 3-6 6-40.9949.7%
2017-01-02Bangkok CHR16Christian GarinDenis Istomin3-6 6-4 7-50.9149.0%
2017-01-02Bangkok CHR32Marsel IlhanDmitry Popko4-6 6-4 7-6(4)0.9849.8%
2017-01-02Bangkok CHR32Zdenek KolarJordi Samper Montana2-6 6-3 6-40.9749.1%
2017-01-02Happy Valley CHR32Ruben BemelmansDonald Young6-4 2-6 7-6(3)1.0149.8%
2017-01-02Noumea CHR16Nikola MilojevicQuentin Halys6-2 4-6 7-6(5)0.9350.0%
2017-01-02Noumea CHR32Tristan LamasineDennis Novikov6-4 7-6(4)0.9551.3%
2017-01-09Canberra CHFDudi SelaJan Lennard Struff3-6 6-4 6-30.9850.0%
2017-01-16Koblenz CHR16Daniel BrandsTeymuraz Gabashvili6-3 1-6 6-30.9450.6%
2017-01-23Lahaina CHQFHenri LaaksonenTennys Sandgren6-4 3-6 6-20.9750.3%
2017-01-23Lahaina CHR32Cameron NorrieJames Mcgee4-6 6-3 6-40.9752.1%
2017-01-23Lahaina CHR32Austin KrajicekMarco Chiudinelli6-4 5-7 7-6(5)0.9650.0%
2017-01-23Lahaina CHR32Kento TakeuchiDenis Shapovalov7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(4)0.9449.6%
2017-01-23Rennes CHSFAndrey RublevBlaz Kavcic7-6(5) 7-50.8849.7%
2017-01-23Rennes CHR16Vincent MillotGuido Andreozzi7-6(4) 4-6 6-20.9850.0%
2017-01-30Burnie CHSFBlake MottAkira Santillan7-6(6) 5-7 6-41.0049.3%
2017-01-30Burnie CHR16Maverick BanesNoah Rubin7-6(5) 6-40.8950.6%
2017-01-30Dallas CHSFTaylor Harry FritzDenis Kudla6-4 2-6 7-6(2)0.9548.7%
2017-01-30Dallas CHR16Tatsuma ItoMikhail Kukushkin4-6 7-6(3) 7-6(6)0.9348.8%
2017-01-30Dallas CHR16Elias YmerSekou Bangoura6-3 7-50.9953.2%
2017-01-30Dallas CHR16Taylor Harry FritzMarcos Giron7-5 4-6 6-30.8750.5%
2017-01-30Dallas CHR32Tatsuma ItoAlejandro Gomez6-4 6-41.0052.2%
2017-01-30Dallas CHR32Sekou BangouraDenys Molchanov5-7 6-3 7-50.9850.2%
2017-02-06Budapest CHR32Edward CorrieZsombor Piros0-6 6-4 6-20.8747.3%
2017-02-06Launceston CHR16Noah RubinBradley Mousley6-4 6-40.9651.6%
2017-02-06Launceston CHR32Maverick BanesJason Jung6-4 4-6 6-30.8450.0%
2017-02-06Launceston CHR32Andrew WhittingtonBlaz Rola1-6 7-6(1) 6-30.7749.2%
2017-02-06San Francisco CHQFMichael MmohDenis Kudla2-6 6-3 6-40.9349.2%
2017-02-06San Francisco CHR16Tatsuma ItoPeter Polansky7-6(3) 3-6 6-40.9249.2%
2017-02-06San Francisco CHR32Vasek PospisilMarco Trungelliti7-6(5) 3-6 6-40.9949.5%
2017-02-06San Francisco CHR32Ramkumar RamanathanMarcos Giron2-6 6-4 6-40.8648.4%
2017-02-06San Francisco CHR32John Patrick SmithJared Donaldson6-3 7-6(4)0.8952.2%
2017-02-13Cherbourg CHSFMathias BourgueKenny De Schepper4-6 7-6(4) 6-30.8749.3%
2017-02-13Cherbourg CHQFJulien BenneteauPeter Gojowczyk6-4 1-6 6-40.9147.7%
2017-02-13Cherbourg CHR16Mathias BourgueDuck Hee Lee6-4 6-40.9651.4%
2017-02-13Cherbourg CHR32Steven DiezJeremy Chardy3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)0.9749.5%
2017-02-13Cherbourg CHR32Ilya IvashkaEdward Corrie2-6 6-4 6-30.8049.4%
2017-02-13Tempe CHR32Tennys SandgrenKimmer Coppejans7-6(8) 6-40.9750.7%
2017-02-20Bergamo CHQFAndrey GolubevMatteo Berrettini3-6 7-6(4) 6-30.8349.7%
2017-02-20Bergamo CHQFFilip KrajinovicRemi Boutillier3-6 6-2 6-40.9349.7%
2017-02-20Bergamo CHR16Quentin HalysDaniel Masur4-6 6-3 6-40.9751.2%
2017-02-20Cuernavaca CHFAlexander BublikNicolas Jarry7-6(5) 6-40.9251.0%
2017-02-20Cuernavaca CHR16Nicolas JarryGonzalo Escobar7-6(5) 6-7(8) 7-6(4)0.9650.0%
2017-02-20Cuernavaca CHR16Alejandro GomezAnte Pavic2-6 7-6(3) 6-41.0049.8%
2017-02-20Cuernavaca CHR32Eduardo StruvayKevin King6-7(2) 7-6(5) 7-6(4)0.9849.0%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHSFBlaz KavcicLloyd George Muirhead Harris6-4 6-7(3) 7-6(5)0.9950.2%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHQFBlaz KavcicYosuke Watanuki6-4 2-6 6-40.9649.7%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHR16Yosuke WatanukiRuben Bemelmans1-6 6-4 7-6(4)0.8247.8%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHR16Blaz KavcicBlaz Rola7-6(4) 2-6 7-6(5)0.9949.0%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHR32Cedrik Marcel StebeHiroki Moriya6-3 2-6 6-40.9749.7%
2017-02-20Kyoto CHR32Ti ChenAndrew Whittington6-4 7-6(6)0.9549.7%
2017-02-27Wroclaw CHR16Petr MichnevAldin Setkic7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.9250.0%
2017-02-27Yokohama CHR16Kaito UesugiRuben Bemelmans6-4 3-6 6-30.9450.9%
2017-03-06Santiago CHQFGuilherme ClezarGuido Andreozzi6-4 2-6 6-30.9549.7%
2017-03-06Santiago CHR16Christian LindellMarco Cecchinato7-6(6) 4-6 7-6(5)0.8547.7%
2017-03-06Santiago CHR16Simone BolelliLeonardo Mayer7-6(5) 4-6 6-30.9850.5%
2017-03-06Zhuhai CHR16Ze ZhangYuichi Sugita6-7(5) 6-4 7-6(5)0.9550.2%
2017-03-06Zhuhai CHR32Agustin VelottiSteven Diez2-6 7-6(3) 7-6(2)0.9950.2%
2017-03-06Zhuhai CHR32Ze ZhangDi Wu1-6 6-2 6-41.0149.6%
2017-03-13Drummondville CHQFJohn Patrick SmithTim Puetz6-7(1) 7-6(5) 6-30.8849.1%
2017-03-13Shenzhen CHQFYuki BhambriMaximilian Marterer6-3 3-6 7-50.9750.5%
2017-03-13Shenzhen CHR16Duck Hee LeeHubert Hurkacz6-3 2-6 7-6(5)0.8847.9%
2017-03-13Shenzhen CHR16Maximilian MartererUladzimir Ignatik4-6 6-4 7-6(6)0.9850.3%
2017-03-13Shenzhen CHR32Evgeny DonskoyIlya Ivashka3-6 6-3 7-6(0)0.9049.6%
2017-03-13Tigre CHQFRuben Ramirez HidalgoRogerio Dutra Silva7-6(4) 4-6 6-40.9449.5%
2017-03-13Tigre CHR32Tomas Lipovsek PuchesInigo Cervantes Huegun7-6(3) 4-6 6-30.9950.9%