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It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP Challenger matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly(ish). Last update: 2021-06-21

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPW
2021-01-24Quimper 1 CHSFFilip HoranskyBrandon Nakashima7-6(10) 4-6 6-40.9449.6%
2021-01-24Quimper 1 CHR32Enzo CouacaudJurij Rodionov6-3 1-6 6-40.9849.7%
2021-01-31Quimper 2 CHSFBrandon NakashimaLukas Lacko4-6 7-5 7-50.8448.5%
2021-01-31Quimper 2 CHR16Federico GaioMarc Andrea Huesler6-4 3-6 7-6(6)0.9949.2%
2021-01-31Quimper 2 CHR16Peter GojowczykArthur Rinderknech7-5 6-7(2) 6-30.8549.5%
2021-01-31Quimper 2 CHR16Bernabe Zapata MirallesBenjamin Bonzi3-6 7-5 6-30.9850.3%
2021-01-31Quimper 2 CHR32Tobias KamkeDenis Istomin5-7 6-4 6-40.9650.3%
2021-02-07Cherbourg CHSFRuben BemelmansArthur Rinderknech6-3 3-6 7-50.9550.0%
2021-02-07Cherbourg CHQFLukas RosolKacper Zuk7-6(2) 4-6 7-6(2)0.8950.0%
2021-02-07Cherbourg CHR32Lukas RosolAlex Molcan1-6 6-3 7-6(6)0.9648.8%
2021-02-07Potchefstroom 1 CHR32Nick ChappellNicola Kuhn6-1 2-6 7-6(3)0.9250.9%
2021-02-07Potchefstroom 1 CHR32Hugo GrenierMarc Andrea Huesler7-6(5) 7-50.9250.8%
2021-02-14Biella 2 CHR32Kamil MajchrzakBlaz Rola7-6(5) 6-40.9551.0%
2021-02-14Biella 2 CHR32Dmitry PopkoSebastian Korda6-4 6-30.9352.2%
2021-02-14Concepcion CHR16Daniel AltmaierLukas Klein1-6 6-3 6-30.9149.1%
2021-02-14Concepcion CHR32Joao DominguesCarlos Gomez Herrera4-6 6-4 7-50.9549.0%
2021-02-14Potchefstroom 2 CHSFTeymuraz GabashviliLiam Broady1-6 6-4 6-40.9148.4%
2021-02-14Potchefstroom 2 CHQFTeymuraz GabashviliAkira Santillan7-6(5) 4-6 6-30.9148.7%
2021-02-14Potchefstroom 2 CHR16Dimitar KuzmanovTristan Lamasine7-5 7-6(5)0.7548.8%
2021-02-22Las Palmas 1 CHQFEnzo CouacaudMarco Trungelliti6-1 0-6 7-6(6)0.9649.1%
2021-02-22Las Palmas 1 CHR16Alex MolcanLorenzo Musetti7-6(5) 7-6(4)0.9551.0%
2021-02-22Las Palmas 1 CHR32Roberto Ortega OlmedoLorenzo Giustino1-6 6-3 6-40.9549.0%
2021-02-22Las Palmas 1 CHR32Marco TrungellitiCarlos Gimeno Valero1-6 7-6(7) 6-30.8948.0%
2021-02-22Nur-Sultan 1 CHQFMackenzie McdonaldFrederico Ferreira Silva6-4 3-6 7-6(3)0.9649.8%
2021-02-22Nur-Sultan 1 CHR16Martin KlizanUlises Blanch6-7(7) 6-2 7-6(5)0.9951.4%
2021-02-22Nur-Sultan 1 CHR16Tomas MachacMaximilian Marterer6-4 3-6 6-30.9750.5%
2021-02-22Nur-Sultan 1 CHR32Pavel KotovBlaz Rola6-4 7-6(7)0.9349.7%
2021-02-22Nur-Sultan 1 CHR32Borna GojoRyan Peniston6-3 1-6 6-40.9548.5%
2021-03-01Nur-Sultan 2 CHR32James DuckworthAlibek Kachmazov6-4 5-7 7-50.9751.1%
2021-03-01Nur-Sultan 2 CHR32Ramkumar RamanathanHugo Grenier6-4 3-6 6-30.9649.7%
2021-03-01St. Petersburg 1 CHFZizou BergsAltug Celikbilek6-4 3-6 6-41.0051.5%
2021-03-01St. Petersburg 1 CHR32Artem DubrivnyyIgor Sijsling3-6 6-4 6-30.9449.7%
2021-03-08Biella 3 CHR16Jurij RodionovZdenek Kolar6-2 4-6 7-6(7)0.9149.3%
2021-03-08Biella 3 CHR32Brayden SchnurStefano Napolitano6-2 6-40.9953.7%
2021-03-08St. Petersburg 2 CHR16Evgeny TyurnevAltug Celikbilek6-3 2-6 6-31.0051.0%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHQFDaniel MasurSergiy Stakhovsky7-6(3) 6-40.9752.2%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHR16Sergiy StakhovskyMarc Andrea Huesler7-5 3-6 7-6(5)0.9049.7%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHR32Zdenek KolarStefano Napolitano7-6(5) 0-6 6-40.8448.0%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHR32Gregoire BarrereAleksandar Vukic7-5 7-6(5)0.9750.0%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHR32Matthias BachingerAkira Santillan7-6(4) 2-6 6-40.9748.6%
2021-03-15Biella 4 CHR32Mathias BourgueYannick Hanfmann7-5 4-6 6-30.9850.8%
2021-03-15Cleveland CHR32Alexander RitschardJc Aragone7-6(5) 5-7 7-50.9749.6%
2021-03-15Santiago CHR16Gonzalo LamaRoberto Carballes Baena2-6 7-6(5) 7-6(8)0.9249.0%
2021-03-15Santiago CHR32Felipe Meligeni Rodrigues AlvesJoao Lucas Magalhaes Hueb De Menezes5-7 6-3 7-50.9650.2%
2021-03-15Santiago CHR32Juan Pablo Varillas Patino SamudioRenzo Olivo6-4 3-6 7-51.0050.5%
2021-03-22Lille CHQFMaxime JanvierArthur Rinderknech6-4 7-6(5)0.9851.0%
2021-03-22Lille CHR32Dustin BrownMathias Bourgue6-7(2) 7-6(2) 6-40.8849.6%
2021-03-22Lille CHR32Giulio ZeppieriOscar Otte7-6(3) 6-30.9452.1%
2021-03-22Lille CHR32Maxime JanvierViktor Durasovic3-6 6-3 6-21.0050.7%
2021-03-22Lugano CHQFYuichi SugitaEvgeny Karlovskiy7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(2)0.9149.1%
2021-03-22Zadar CHFNikola MilojevicDimitar Kuzmanov2-6 6-2 7-6(5)0.9849.5%
2021-03-22Zadar CHR16Nerman FaticAlessandro Giannessi7-6(4) 5-7 7-6(6)0.9949.8%
2021-03-22Zadar CHR32Sumit NagalNino Serdarusic7-6(4) 6-40.9451.0%
2021-03-29Oeiras 1 CHR32Zdenek KolarNuno Borges2-6 7-6(6) 6-10.9650.5%
2021-04-05Oeiras 2 CHQFPedro CachinGian Marco Moroni6-3 2-6 6-40.9348.8%
2021-04-05Oeiras 2 CHR32Adrian AndreevChun Hsin Tseng1-6 7-6(5) 6-30.9248.7%
2021-04-05Split 1 CHR16Blaz KavcicElias Ymer4-6 7-6(7) 6-40.9850.0%
2021-04-05Split 1 CHR16Aleksandar VukicKimmer Coppejans2-6 6-4 6-40.9750.0%
2021-04-05Split 1 CHR16Mirza BasicRobin Haase7-6(4) 6-30.9952.3%
2021-04-05Split 1 CHR32Robin HaaseMarc Polmans6-3 4-6 7-6(4)0.9650.7%
2021-04-12Belgrade CHR32Hamad MedjedovicOscar Otte6-3 1-6 6-30.9350.3%
2021-04-12Split 2 CHQFMathias BourgueMirza Basic6-4 1-6 7-50.8847.6%
2021-04-12Split 2 CHR32Hugo GastonLukas Klein6-3 3-6 6-30.8650.0%
2021-04-19Rome 1 CHR32Sergiy StakhovskyMathias Bourgue6-4 3-6 7-50.9249.5%
2021-04-19Rome 1 CHR32Bernard TomicRuben Bemelmans6-3 6-40.8653.3%
2021-04-19Salinas 1 CHQFAltug CelikbilekTim Van Rijthoven6-3 2-6 7-6(6)0.6247.0%
2021-04-19Salinas 1 CHR32Nicolas MejiaDiego Hidalgo6-3 1-6 7-51.0049.7%
2021-04-19Tallahassee CHR16Denis KudlaAlexander Ritschard6-3 2-6 7-6(5)0.9548.6%
2021-04-19Tallahassee CHR32Pedro SakamotoPrajnesh Gunneswaran6-2 2-6 6-40.8548.5%
2021-04-26Ostrava CHR16Tomas Martin EtcheverryGregoire Barrere3-6 6-4 6-30.8548.9%
2021-04-26Ostrava CHR32Tomas Martin EtcheverryZdenek Kolar1-6 6-4 6-20.9849.7%
2021-04-26Ostrava CHR32Elias YmerMaxime Cressy3-6 7-6(5) 6-41.0149.3%
2021-04-26Rome 2 CHR32Giulio ZeppieriHugo Dellien1-6 6-3 6-40.8247.2%
2021-05-03Biella 5 CHR32Dimitar KuzmanovLorenzo Giustino6-3 1-6 6-30.9750.0%
2021-05-03Prague CHR16Michael VrbenskyAndrej Martin6-4 1-6 6-40.9348.4%
2021-05-03Prague CHR32Kacper ZukMario Vilella Martinez7-6(5) 2-6 7-50.8548.2%
2021-05-03Prague CHR32Jiri LeheckaRoman Safiullin4-6 6-3 7-6(4)0.9050.0%
2021-05-10Heilbronn CHSFBernabe Zapata MirallesDennis Novak6-3 1-6 6-30.8750.3%
2021-05-10Heilbronn CHSFDaniel Elahi Galan RiverosMackenzie Mcdonald6-4 6-7(4) 7-50.9650.0%
2021-05-10Zagreb CHQFJuan Pablo Varillas Patino SamudioNikola Milojevic7-6(3) 6-30.8851.4%
2021-05-10Zagreb CHR32Thiago Seyboth WildRoman Safiullin0-6 7-5 7-50.9248.2%
2021-05-17Biella 6 CHR32Thai Son KwiatkowskiDmitry Popko6-2 1-6 7-6(2)0.9449.2%
2021-05-24Oeiras 4 CHR32Timofey SkatovIgor Sijsling2-6 6-2 7-6(4)0.9850.0%
2021-05-31Biella 7 CHR32Martin KlizanAndrea Collarini7-5 2-6 6-40.8247.4%
2021-05-31Little Rock CHSFJack SockMitchell Krueger6-4 1-6 6-30.8649.0%
2021-05-31Little Rock CHR16Jack SockErnesto Escobedo6-7(7) 7-6(9) 7-6(5)0.9549.0%
2021-05-31Little Rock CHR32Ulises BlanchZachary Svajda5-7 6-3 6-30.8649.2%
2021-06-07Almaty CHR32Zizou BergsMarcelo Tomas Barrios Vera2-6 7-6(9) 6-30.9648.7%
2021-06-07Almaty CHR32Evan FurnessCarlos Gimeno Valero1-6 6-2 6-30.9849.6%
2021-06-07Bratislava CHQFTallon GriekspoorJiri Lehecka2-6 6-3 6-20.9450.9%
2021-06-07Bratislava CHR32Martin KlizanMats Moraing7-6(2) 6-7(3) 7-50.9549.8%
2021-06-07Lyon CHR16Andrea PellegrinoMaxime Janvier7-6(6) 3-6 6-31.0049.3%
2021-06-07Lyon CHR16Daniel AltmaierDaniel Elahi Galan Riveros6-4 3-6 7-6(6)1.0249.8%
2021-06-07Lyon CHR32Andrea PellegrinoCamilo Ugo Carabelli6-4 0-6 6-41.0049.7%
2021-06-07Lyon CHR32Oscar OtteBenjamin Bonzi4-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9549.8%
2021-06-07Lyon CHR32Holger Vitus Nodskov RuneTitouan Droguet7-6(3) 1-6 6-41.0549.8%
2021-06-07Nottingham CHSFDenis KudlaKamil Majchrzak6-4 1-6 7-6(6)0.7246.6%
2021-06-07Nottingham CHQFDenis KudlaDaniel Evans6-4 1-6 6-40.9748.6%
2021-06-07Nottingham CHQFMarius CopilKevin Anderson7-6(4) 7-6(9)0.9550.6%
2021-06-07Nottingham CHQFFrancis TiafoeEvgeny Donskoy7-6(4) 2-6 6-30.7848.8%
2021-06-07Nottingham CHR16Francis TiafoeIllya Marchenko7-5 7-6(5)0.9750.6%
2021-06-07Orlando 2 CHFChristopher EubanksNicolas Mejia2-6 7-6(3) 6-40.9248.9%
2021-06-07Orlando 2 CHR32Guido AndreozziDayne Kelly4-6 6-4 7-51.0049.5%
2021-06-14Forli CHR16Jacopo BerrettiniPedro Cachin7-6(4) 6-7(4) 6-40.9949.6%
2021-06-14Nottingham 2 CHR32Denis KudlaKevin Anderson7-5 1-6 6-30.8248.2%
2021-06-14Prostejov CHR32Michael VrbenskyGoncalo Oliveira6-3 2-6 6-40.8949.7%
2021-06-14Prostejov CHR32Vit KoprivaJozef Kovalik2-6 7-6(4) 6-40.9849.5%