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It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly. Last update: 2017-03-20

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPW
2017-01-02BrisbaneQFStanislas WawrinkaKyle Edmund6-7(2) 6-4 6-40.9550.5%
2017-01-02BrisbaneQ2Yoshihito NishiokaTim Smyczek7-5 6-40.8851.1%
2017-01-02BrisbaneQ1Yoshihito NishiokaGo Soeda6-4 0-6 6-20.8248.4%
2017-01-02ChennaiQFRoberto Bautista AgutMikhail Youzhny2-6 6-4 6-40.9949.4%
2017-01-02ChennaiR16Jozef KovalikMarin Cilic7-6(5) 5-7 7-50.8749.0%
2017-01-02DohaQFTomas BerdychJo Wilfried Tsonga7-5 6-30.9754.0%
2017-01-02DohaR32Arthur De GreefMohamed Safwat6-7(8) 7-5 6-40.9450.0%
2017-01-09AucklandR32Dustin BrownMichael Mmoh7-6(4) 3-6 6-40.8449.5%
2017-01-09AucklandR32Yen Hsun LuKaren Khachanov4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(9)0.9750.4%
2017-01-09SydneyR16Pablo Carreno BustaMischa Zverev3-6 7-6(4) 6-31.0349.8%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR128Victor EstrellaAljaz Bedene7-6(7) 7-5 0-6 6-30.9448.9%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Daniel EvansMarin Cilic3-6 7-5 6-3 6-30.9951.4%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Benoit PaireFabio Fognini7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 3-6 6-30.9950.3%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Denis IstominNovak Djokovic7-6(8) 5-7 2-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9349.1%
2017-02-06MontpellierR16Alexander ZverevAljaz Bedene7-5 3-6 6-40.9750.5%
2017-02-06MontpellierR32Benoit PaireKaren Khachanov7-6(4) 6-40.9750.7%
2017-02-06MontpellierR32Malek JaziriTristan Lamasine1-6 7-5 7-6(3)0.9949.3%
2017-02-06MontpellierQ2Julien BenneteauStefano Napolitano3-6 6-4 6-40.9449.3%
2017-02-06QuitoR16Victor EstrellaIvo Karlovic6-7(7) 7-6(5) 7-6(8)0.8549.1%
2017-02-06QuitoR32Rajeev RamAlexandr Dolgopolov3-6 7-6(4) 6-31.0149.3%
2017-02-06QuitoR32Matthew EbdenAgustin Velotti2-6 6-4 6-30.9951.7%
2017-02-06QuitoQ1Marco CecchinatoGuilherme Clezar4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(5)0.5346.2%
2017-02-06SofiaSFDavid GoffinRoberto Bautista Agut5-7 6-4 7-6(3)0.9249.1%
2017-02-06SofiaR16Viktor TroickiRobin Haase2-6 6-4 7-6(3)0.7747.6%
2017-02-06SofiaR32Andreas SeppiDamir Dzumhur7-6(3) 3-6 6-30.9849.7%
2017-02-06SofiaQ2Daniel BrandsTeymuraz Gabashvili6-4 3-6 6-40.8649.2%
2017-02-13Buenos AiresR16Alexandr DolgopolovPablo Cuevas6-3 7-6(4)0.9752.0%
2017-02-13Buenos AiresR32Alessandro GiannessiRogerio Dutra Silva5-7 7-6(6) 6-40.9549.8%
2017-02-13MemphisQFDonald YoungJohn Isner7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6)0.6646.9%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Taylor Harry FritzYen Hsun Lu4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(7)0.7346.9%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Damir DzumhurKevin Anderson6-7(6) 7-6(2) 6-40.9650.6%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Donald YoungAdrian Mannarino3-6 7-5 7-6(4)0.9149.0%
2017-02-13RotterdamR16Dominic ThiemGilles Simon6-4 7-6(4)0.8049.6%
2017-02-13RotterdamR32Martin KlizanFernando Verdasco6-4 0-6 6-10.9649.7%
2017-02-13RotterdamR32Pierre Hugues HerbertFeliciano Lopez7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.7349.4%
2017-02-13RotterdamQ1Botic Van De ZandschulpAndrey Rublev1-6 6-4 6-30.9349.1%
2017-02-20Delray BeachR16Donald YoungTaylor Harry Fritz4-6 6-3 6-40.8149.2%
2017-02-20Delray BeachR32Jared DonaldsonMikhail Kukushkin7-6(5) 3-6 6-30.9149.3%
2017-02-20MarseilleR16Daniil MedvedevJan Lennard Struff6-3 3-6 7-6(3)0.8349.4%
2017-02-20MarseilleR16Norbert GombosNicolas Mahut7-5 3-6 7-6(5)0.9149.8%
2017-02-20MarseilleR32Daniil MedvedevBenoit Paire5-7 7-5 7-6(4)0.9549.8%
2017-02-20MarseilleR32Nicolas MahutAlexander Zverev7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.8950.0%
2017-02-20MarseilleQ1Albert MontanesMarton Fucsovics0-6 6-4 6-40.6446.1%
2017-02-20Rio De JaneiroR16Thiago MonteiroThomaz Bellucci7-6(8) 3-6 6-30.9549.7%
2017-02-20Rio De JaneiroQ2Roberto Carballes BaenaGuilherme Clezar1-6 6-1 6-40.9750.7%
2017-02-27AcapulcoR32Adrian MannarinoTaylor Harry Fritz3-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9548.4%
2017-02-27AcapulcoR32Jordan ThompsonFeliciano Lopez2-6 6-3 6-30.9950.9%
2017-02-27DubaiR16Evgeny DonskoyRoger Federer3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)0.9848.5%
2017-02-27DubaiR16Fernando VerdascoRoberto Bautista Agut6-4 3-6 7-50.9749.5%
2017-02-27DubaiQ1Lukas RosolIvan Dodig5-7 7-6(5) 6-40.9850.2%
2017-02-27Sao PauloR32Fabio FogniniMarco Cecchinato6-4 7-6(4)0.9851.4%
2017-02-27Sao PauloR32Federico DelbonisJozef Kovalik6-4 7-6(5)0.8950.0%
2017-02-27Sao PauloQ1Marco CecchinatoLeonardo Mayer6-4 2-6 6-30.9250.3%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR32Yoshihito NishiokaTomas Berdych1-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9047.8%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR32Donald YoungLucas Pouille6-4 1-6 6-30.8547.9%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR64Jack SockHenri Laaksonen6-3 0-6 6-40.8848.5%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR64Donald YoungSam Querrey6-3 3-6 6-30.8149.7%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR64Steve JohnsonKevin Anderson6-4 3-6 7-6(4)0.9548.1%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR128Fabio FogniniKonstantin Kravchuk0-6 7-5 6-40.9549.2%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR128Henri LaaksonenBorna Coric3-6 6-4 6-20.9850.6%
2017-03-06Indian WellsR128Facundo BagnisJulien Benneteau5-7 6-4 6-20.9550.8%
2017-03-06Indian WellsQ2Radu AlbotAlex De Minaur6-3 3-6 6-41.0049.7%
2017-03-06Indian WellsQ2Santiago GiraldoNorbert Gombos7-5 3-6 6-20.9850.6%
2017-03-06Indian WellsQ1Alex De MinaurGo Soeda6-3 2-6 6-30.9850.8%
2017-03-06Indian WellsQ1Norbert GombosRuben Bemelmans6-4 1-6 6-30.8348.6%
2017-03-06Indian WellsQ1Illya MarchenkoTeymuraz Gabashvili6-4 2-6 6-41.0050.9%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G1 R1: UZB vs KORRRDenis IstominSoon Woo Kwon3-6 7-6(5) 6-2 7-6(12)1.0050.2%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G2 R1: NOR vs LATRRSimen Sunde BratholmRudolfs Mednis5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(6)0.9047.7%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G2 R1: TUR vs CYPRRMarsel IlhanPetros Chrysochos5-7 7-5 7-6(2) 6-40.9649.8%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: BEL vs GERRRSteve DarcisPhilipp Kohlschreiber6-4 3-6 2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5)0.9148.5%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: ESP vs CRORRFranco SkugorPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6-3 6-4 4-6 7-6(6)0.9549.5%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: RUS vs SRBRRViktor TroickiKaren Khachanov6-4 6-7(3) 6-3 1-6 7-6(6)1.0249.9%