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It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly. Last update: 2018-01-01

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPW
2018-01-01BrisbaneSFRyan HarrisonAlex De Minaur4-6 7-6(5) 6-40.8448.8%
2018-01-01BrisbaneR16Michael MmohMischa Zverev6-2 5-7 6-40.9551.0%
2018-01-01BrisbaneQ2Peter PolanskyYannick Hanfmann6-1 3-6 6-30.9851.7%
2018-01-01BrisbaneQ2Ernesto EscobedoJozef Kovalik6-2 7-6(4)0.8752.2%
2018-01-01BrisbaneQ1Jozef KovalikDenis Kudla7-6(5) 6-40.9050.7%
2018-01-01DohaR16Andrey RublevFernando Verdasco6-4 3-6 6-40.8748.9%
2018-01-01DohaR32Jan Lennard StruffTomas Berdych6-4 1-6 7-6(4)0.8847.6%
2018-01-01DohaR32Guido PellaAlbert Ramos2-6 7-5 7-50.9550.3%
2018-01-01DohaQ1Mirza BasicAlexey Vatutin6-3 6-40.8952.8%
2018-01-01PuneSFGilles SimonMarin Cilic1-6 6-3 6-20.8948.7%
2018-01-01PuneQFBenoit PaireRobin Haase7-5 2-6 6-30.9850.0%
2018-01-01PuneR16Ricardo Ojeda LaraIlya Ivashka6-4 6-40.9551.2%
2018-01-01PuneR16Robin HaaseNicolas Jarry3-6 7-6(5) 7-50.9749.3%
2018-01-01PuneR16Benoit PaireMarton Fucsovics6-4 6-7(4) 7-6(6)0.9749.5%
2018-01-01PuneQ1Thiago MonteiroN Sriram Balaji3-6 6-3 7-50.8549.4%
2018-01-01PuneQ1Joao SouzaSoon Woo Kwon4-6 6-3 7-6(4)0.9550.0%