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It's possible to win a match despite losing more than half of all points, or to win a match despite winning fewer return points than your opponent does. I define "lottery matches" as those contests in which both players win at least 47% of points, the threshhold at which luck and clutch play take on a larger-than-usual role.

This table shows all ATP matches this year within a special category of lottery matches: those in which the winner lost more than 50% of points and/or lost more return points than his opponent did.

DR = Dominance Ratio, the ratio of return points won to opponent's return points won.
TPW = percentage of Total Points Won.

Updated weekly. Last update: 2017-07-03

DateTournamentRoundWinnerLoserScoreDRTPW
2017-01-02BrisbaneQFStanislas WawrinkaKyle Edmund6-7(2) 6-4 6-40.9550.5%
2017-01-02BrisbaneQ2Yoshihito NishiokaTim Smyczek7-5 6-40.8851.1%
2017-01-02BrisbaneQ1Yoshihito NishiokaGo Soeda6-4 0-6 6-20.8248.4%
2017-01-02ChennaiQFRoberto Bautista AgutMikhail Youzhny2-6 6-4 6-40.9949.4%
2017-01-02ChennaiR16Jozef KovalikMarin Cilic7-6(5) 5-7 7-50.8749.0%
2017-01-02DohaQFTomas BerdychJo Wilfried Tsonga7-5 6-30.9754.0%
2017-01-02DohaR32Arthur De GreefMohamed Safwat6-7(8) 7-5 6-40.9450.0%
2017-01-09AucklandR32Dustin BrownMichael Mmoh7-6(4) 3-6 6-40.8449.5%
2017-01-09AucklandR32Yen Hsun LuKaren Khachanov4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(9)0.9750.4%
2017-01-09SydneyR16Pablo Carreno BustaMischa Zverev3-6 7-6(4) 6-31.0349.8%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR128Victor EstrellaAljaz Bedene7-6(7) 7-5 0-6 6-30.9448.9%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Daniel EvansMarin Cilic3-6 7-5 6-3 6-30.9951.4%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Benoit PaireFabio Fognini7-6(3) 4-6 6-3 3-6 6-30.9950.3%
2017-01-16Australian OpenR64Denis IstominNovak Djokovic7-6(8) 5-7 2-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9349.1%
2017-02-06MontpellierR16Alexander ZverevAljaz Bedene7-5 3-6 6-40.9750.5%
2017-02-06MontpellierR32Benoit PaireKaren Khachanov7-6(4) 6-40.9750.7%
2017-02-06MontpellierR32Malek JaziriTristan Lamasine1-6 7-5 7-6(3)0.9949.3%
2017-02-06MontpellierQ2Julien BenneteauStefano Napolitano3-6 6-4 6-40.9449.3%
2017-02-06QuitoR16Victor EstrellaIvo Karlovic6-7(7) 7-6(5) 7-6(8)0.8549.1%
2017-02-06QuitoR32Rajeev RamAlexandr Dolgopolov3-6 7-6(4) 6-31.0149.3%
2017-02-06QuitoR32Matthew EbdenAgustin Velotti2-6 6-4 6-30.9951.7%
2017-02-06QuitoQ1Marco CecchinatoGuilherme Clezar4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(5)0.5346.2%
2017-02-06SofiaSFDavid GoffinRoberto Bautista Agut5-7 6-4 7-6(3)0.9249.1%
2017-02-06SofiaR16Viktor TroickiRobin Haase2-6 6-4 7-6(3)0.7747.6%
2017-02-06SofiaR32Andreas SeppiDamir Dzumhur7-6(3) 3-6 6-30.9849.7%
2017-02-06SofiaQ2Daniel BrandsTeymuraz Gabashvili6-4 3-6 6-40.8649.2%
2017-02-13Buenos AiresR16Alexandr DolgopolovPablo Cuevas6-3 7-6(4)0.9752.0%
2017-02-13Buenos AiresR32Alessandro GiannessiRogerio Dutra Silva5-7 7-6(6) 6-40.9549.8%
2017-02-13MemphisQFDonald YoungJohn Isner7-6(5) 3-6 7-6(6)0.6646.9%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Taylor Harry FritzYen Hsun Lu4-6 7-6(4) 7-6(7)0.7346.9%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Damir DzumhurKevin Anderson6-7(6) 7-6(2) 6-40.9650.6%
2017-02-13MemphisR32Donald YoungAdrian Mannarino3-6 7-5 7-6(4)0.9149.0%
2017-02-13RotterdamR16Dominic ThiemGilles Simon6-4 7-6(4)0.8049.6%
2017-02-13RotterdamR32Martin KlizanFernando Verdasco6-4 0-6 6-10.9649.7%
2017-02-13RotterdamR32Pierre Hugues HerbertFeliciano Lopez7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.7349.4%
2017-02-13RotterdamQ1Botic Van De ZandschulpAndrey Rublev1-6 6-4 6-30.9349.1%
2017-02-20Delray BeachR16Donald YoungTaylor Harry Fritz4-6 6-3 6-40.8149.2%
2017-02-20Delray BeachR32Jared DonaldsonMikhail Kukushkin7-6(5) 3-6 6-30.9149.3%
2017-02-20MarseilleR16Daniil MedvedevJan Lennard Struff6-3 3-6 7-6(3)0.8349.4%
2017-02-20MarseilleR16Norbert GombosNicolas Mahut7-5 3-6 7-6(5)0.9149.8%
2017-02-20MarseilleR32Daniil MedvedevBenoit Paire5-7 7-5 7-6(4)0.9549.8%
2017-02-20MarseilleR32Nicolas MahutAlexander Zverev7-6(5) 7-6(5)0.8950.0%
2017-02-20MarseilleQ1Albert MontanesMarton Fucsovics0-6 6-4 6-40.6446.1%
2017-02-20Rio De JaneiroR16Thiago MonteiroThomaz Bellucci7-6(8) 3-6 6-30.9549.7%
2017-02-20Rio De JaneiroQ2Roberto Carballes BaenaGuilherme Clezar1-6 6-1 6-40.9750.7%
2017-02-27AcapulcoR32Adrian MannarinoTaylor Harry Fritz3-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9548.4%
2017-02-27AcapulcoR32Jordan ThompsonFeliciano Lopez2-6 6-3 6-30.9950.9%
2017-02-27DubaiR16Evgeny DonskoyRoger Federer3-6 7-6(7) 7-6(5)0.9848.5%
2017-02-27DubaiR16Fernando VerdascoRoberto Bautista Agut6-4 3-6 7-50.9749.5%
2017-02-27DubaiQ1Lukas RosolIvan Dodig5-7 7-6(5) 6-40.9850.2%
2017-02-27Sao PauloR32Fabio FogniniMarco Cecchinato6-4 7-6(4)0.9851.4%
2017-02-27Sao PauloR32Federico DelbonisJozef Kovalik6-4 7-6(5)0.8950.0%
2017-02-27Sao PauloQ1Marco CecchinatoLeonardo Mayer6-4 2-6 6-30.9250.3%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR32Yoshihito NishiokaTomas Berdych1-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9047.8%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR32Donald YoungLucas Pouille6-4 1-6 6-30.8547.9%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR64Jack SockHenri Laaksonen6-3 0-6 6-40.8848.5%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR64Donald YoungSam Querrey6-3 3-6 6-30.8149.7%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR64Steve JohnsonKevin Anderson6-4 3-6 7-6(4)0.9548.1%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR128Fabio FogniniKonstantin Kravchuk0-6 7-5 6-40.9549.2%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR128Henri LaaksonenBorna Coric3-6 6-4 6-20.9850.6%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersR128Facundo BagnisJulien Benneteau5-7 6-4 6-20.9550.8%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersQ2Radu AlbotAlex De Minaur6-3 3-6 6-41.0049.7%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersQ2Santiago GiraldoNorbert Gombos7-5 3-6 6-20.9850.6%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersQ1Alex De MinaurGo Soeda6-3 2-6 6-30.9850.8%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersQ1Norbert GombosRuben Bemelmans6-4 1-6 6-30.8348.6%
2017-03-06Indian Wells MastersQ1Illya MarchenkoTeymuraz Gabashvili6-4 2-6 6-41.0050.9%
2017-03-20Miami MastersQFRoger FedererTomas Berdych6-2 3-6 7-6(6)1.0149.4%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR16Nick KyrgiosDavid Goffin7-6(5) 6-30.9550.0%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR32Fabio FogniniJeremy Chardy3-6 6-4 6-40.8949.2%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR64Adrian MannarinoPaolo Lorenzi6-4 3-6 6-20.8849.1%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR64Guido PellaGrigor Dimitrov6-3 7-6(4)0.9951.6%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR64Jeremy ChardyMarin Cilic6-4 2-6 6-31.0149.7%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR64Fabio FogniniJoao Sousa7-6(8) 2-6 6-30.9349.8%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR128Horacio ZeballosGastao Elias6-7(2) 6-2 7-50.9450.0%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR128Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanKaren Khachanov6-4 3-6 7-6(4)0.9248.4%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR128Yoshihito NishiokaJordan Thompson1-6 6-4 6-30.9550.0%
2017-03-20Miami MastersR128Ernesto EscobedoDaniel Evans7-5 0-6 6-30.9850.3%
2017-03-20Miami MastersQ1Norbert GombosQuentin Halys6-4 1-6 7-6(2)1.0249.7%
2017-03-20Miami MastersQ1Ruben BemelmansJozef Kovalik1-6 7-5 6-31.0749.7%
2017-04-10HoustonQFJack SockFeliciano Lopez7-6(6) 1-6 6-41.0449.5%
2017-04-10HoustonR16Jack SockTommy Haas6-4 3-6 6-31.0050.6%
2017-04-10HoustonR32Thomaz BellucciFrancis Tiafoe7-5 1-6 6-20.9950.6%
2017-04-10HoustonQ2Leonardo MayerDenis Kudla3-6 6-4 6-40.9649.5%
2017-04-10MarrakechFBorna CoricPhilipp Kohlschreiber5-7 7-6(3) 7-50.9549.6%
2017-04-10MarrakechR16Tommy RobredoGrigor Dimitrov6-4 1-6 6-10.9751.3%
2017-04-10MarrakechR32Tommy RobredoSergiy Stakhovsky6-4 6-40.8950.8%
2017-04-10MarrakechQ2Taro DanielLuca Vanni7-6(4) 7-6(2)0.9951.1%
2017-04-10MarrakechQ1Gianluigi QuinziEvgeny Donskoy7-6(4) 3-6 6-30.9449.5%
2017-04-17Monte CarloQ2Andrey KuznetsovMikhail Youzhny3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5)0.9749.3%
2017-04-17Monte CarloQ1Sergiy StakhovskyDusan Lajovic7-6(0) 3-6 6-30.9751.1%
2017-04-17Monte CarloQ1Mikhail YouzhnyTaro Daniel6-3 1-6 7-6(4)0.9048.5%
2017-04-17Monte CarloQ1Renzo OlivoJozef Kovalik1-6 6-3 6-20.9450.6%
2017-04-24BarcelonaR16Horacio ZeballosBenoit Paire6-4 3-6 7-6(3)0.9949.5%
2017-04-24BarcelonaR64Kyle EdmundJeremy Chardy6-3 6-40.8751.8%
2017-04-24BarcelonaQ1Thiago MonteiroLukas Rosol6-3 6-7(4) 6-30.9750.0%
2017-04-24BarcelonaQ1Daniel MasurAndrey Rublev7-6(1) 3-6 6-31.0050.9%
2017-04-24BudapestR16Paolo LorenziSergiy Stakhovsky6-4 3-6 6-30.8348.9%
2017-05-01EstorilQFKevin AndersonRichard Gasquet6-2 3-6 7-6(4)0.9050.5%
2017-05-01EstorilR32Joao DominguesKyle Edmund6-4 3-6 7-6(2)1.0449.7%
2017-05-01IstanbulR32Dusan LajovicBorna Coric6-3 6-7(1) 7-50.9950.5%
2017-05-01IstanbulR32Jiri VeselyMarcel Granollers7-5 2-6 6-40.8849.5%
2017-05-01IstanbulQ1Daniel BrandsPere Riba6-7(10) 7-6(5) 6-40.9750.4%
2017-05-01MunichQFAlexander ZverevJan Lennard Struff3-6 7-6(3) 7-6(5)0.9147.9%
2017-05-01MunichQ1Yannick HanfmannArthur De Greef7-6(4) 5-7 6-40.9750.7%
2017-05-08MadridR16Dominic ThiemGrigor Dimitrov4-6 6-4 7-6(9)0.9750.2%
2017-05-08MadridR64Ivo KarlovicRoberto Bautista Agut7-6(4) 6-7(9) 7-6(7)0.8750.0%
2017-05-08MadridR64Pablo CuevasThomaz Bellucci7-6(2) 4-6 7-6(6)0.8848.8%
2017-05-08MadridR64Nicolas MahutJack Sock6-4 0-6 7-6(4)0.8547.7%
2017-05-08MadridR64David FerrerMikhail Kukushkin2-6 7-6(1) 6-40.9049.0%
2017-05-08MadridQ1Adrian MannarinoJaume Munar3-6 7-6(3) 6-30.8848.4%
2017-05-08MadridQ1Mikhail KukushkinDaniel Munoz De La Nava7-6(5) 3-6 6-40.9248.0%
2017-05-08MadridQ1Mikhail YouzhnyRoberto Carballes Baena3-6 6-3 6-40.9950.8%
2017-05-15RomeQFJohn IsnerMarin Cilic7-6(3) 2-6 7-6(2)0.9248.6%
2017-05-15RomeR64Pablo CuevasAdrian Mannarino6-4 7-6(2)0.9952.0%
2017-05-15RomeR64Jack SockDiego Sebastian Schwartzman6-4 1-6 7-50.9748.9%
2017-05-15RomeQ1Adrian MannarinoSalvatore Caruso4-6 6-4 7-50.9950.3%
2017-05-22GenevaQFAndrey KuznetsovCedrik Marcel Stebe6-2 1-6 7-51.0049.4%
2017-05-22GenevaR32Horacio ZeballosDusan Lajovic6-4 0-6 7-50.8647.4%
2017-05-22GenevaR32Mischa ZverevRobin Haase5-7 7-6(6) 6-30.9650.0%
2017-05-22GenevaQ2Franco SkugorCedrik Marcel Stebe7-5 5-7 7-6(3)0.9349.8%
2017-05-22LyonSFTomas BerdychMilos Raonic7-6(5) 7-6(2)0.9550.9%
2017-05-22LyonR16Gilles SimonKyle Edmund3-6 7-5 6-40.9048.6%
2017-05-22LyonR16Nikoloz BasilashviliAndreas Seppi6-4 6-40.9350.8%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR128Martin KlizanLaurent Lokoli7-6(4) 6-3 4-6 0-6 6-40.8948.5%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR128Fabio FogniniFrancis Tiafoe6-4 6-3 3-6 1-6 6-00.9850.0%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR128Victor EstrellaTeymuraz Gabashvili6-7(9) 2-6 7-6(3) 6-3 6-20.9850.6%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR128Konstantin KravchukFederico Delbonis6-3 6-4 7-6(6)0.9851.4%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR128Diego Sebastian SchwartzmanAndrey Rublev0-6 6-4 6-2 6-7(3) 9-70.9949.4%
2017-05-29Roland GarrosR16Pablo Carreno BustaMilos Raonic4-6 7-6(2) 6-7(6) 6-4 8-60.9850.5%
2017-06-12'S-HertogenboschSFIvo KarlovicMarin Cilic7-6(4) 5-7 7-6(2)0.8349.8%
2017-06-12'S-HertogenboschR32Daniil MedvedevRobin Haase7-6(5) 3-6 6-30.8950.0%
2017-06-12'S-HertogenboschR32Julien BenneteauEvgeny Donskoy3-6 6-4 7-6(5)0.8648.4%
2017-06-12'S-HertogenboschQ2Daniil MedvedevTim Smyczek5-7 6-4 6-40.9850.0%
2017-06-12'S-HertogenboschQ1Dennis NovikovIlya Ivashka7-5 7-6(3)0.9551.3%
2017-06-12StuttgartFLucas PouilleFeliciano Lopez4-6 7-6(5) 6-40.9150.3%
2017-06-12StuttgartQFFeliciano LopezTomas Berdych6-7(4) 6-3 6-40.8750.8%
2017-06-12StuttgartQFLucas PouillePhilipp Kohlschreiber6-4 2-6 6-30.9249.7%
2017-06-12StuttgartR16Tommy HaasRoger Federer2-6 7-6(8) 6-40.8347.8%
2017-06-12StuttgartR16Lucas PouilleJan Lennard Struff4-6 7-6(5) 7-6(8)0.8148.4%
2017-06-12StuttgartR16Jerzy JanowiczGrigor Dimitrov7-6(4) 6-30.6951.7%
2017-06-12StuttgartR32Jerzy JanowiczAndrey Kuznetsov6-4 3-6 6-30.9750.6%
2017-06-12StuttgartQ2Peter GojowczykRuben Bemelmans6-4 7-6(4)0.9251.1%
2017-06-12StuttgartQ1Yannick HanfmannLukas Rosol6-3 2-6 6-41.0249.7%
2017-06-19HalleR16Roberto Bautista AgutDustin Brown6-4 1-6 7-6(6)0.9649.5%
2017-06-19HalleR32Lucas PouilleJan Lennard Struff1-6 6-3 6-40.9148.6%
2017-06-19HalleR32Andrey RublevAlbert Ramos6-7(1) 7-5 6-40.9749.4%
2017-06-19HalleQ1Maximilian MartererDenis Istomin7-6(5) 7-6(3)0.9350.3%
2017-06-19HalleQ1Alexander BublikAndrey Kuznetsov2-6 6-4 6-40.8849.4%
2017-06-19HalleQ1Ernesto EscobedoLuca Vanni6-3 7-6(2)0.8851.4%
2017-06-19LondonFFeliciano LopezMarin Cilic4-6 7-6(2) 7-6(8)0.7648.0%
2017-06-19LondonQFGilles MullerSam Querrey6-4 7-6(5)0.8851.6%
2017-06-19LondonQFFeliciano LopezTomas Berdych7-6(5) 6-7(1) 7-50.9350.0%
2017-06-19LondonR32Thanasi KokkinakisMilos Raonic7-6(5) 7-6(8)0.6349.5%
2017-06-19LondonR32Denis ShapovalovKyle Edmund7-6(4) 4-6 6-40.9549.5%
2017-06-26AntalyaQFMarcos BaghdatisRamkumar Ramanathan6-7(0) 6-3 7-6(6)1.0149.1%
2017-06-26AntalyaR16Daniel AltmaierMarsel Ilhan6-3 3-6 7-6(5)0.9449.5%
2017-06-26AntalyaR16Andreas SeppiJanko Tipsarevic3-6 6-4 6-40.8449.7%
2017-06-26AntalyaR32Carlos BerlocqViktor Troicki3-6 6-2 6-40.9950.8%
2017-06-26AntalyaR32Daniel AltmaierVictor Estrella7-5 6-7(8) 7-6(5)0.9850.2%
2017-06-26AntalyaR32Steve DarcisDenis Istomin6-4 6-7(5) 6-40.9751.1%
2017-06-26EastbourneR16Richard GasquetKevin Anderson6-4 6-40.9953.5%
2017-06-26EastbourneR16John IsnerDusan Lajovic3-6 7-6(2) 7-6(4)0.9749.2%
2017-06-26EastbourneR32Donald YoungKyle Edmund6-4 3-6 6-30.8849.7%
2017-06-26EastbourneR32Jared DonaldsonDiego Sebastian Schwartzman7-6(5) 3-6 7-50.9949.6%
2017-06-26EastbourneQ2Franco SkugorAndrey Kuznetsov2-6 6-4 6-41.0049.4%
2017-06-26EastbourneQ1Ivan DodigSteven Diez3-6 6-3 7-50.9950.3%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G1 R1: UZB vs KORRRDenis IstominSoon Woo Kwon3-6 7-6(5) 6-2 7-6(12)1.0050.2%
2017-04-07Davis Cup G2 R2: NOR vs DENRRAugust HolmgrenSimen Sunde Bratholm7-6(4) 7-50.9950.6%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G2 R1: NOR vs LATRRSimen Sunde BratholmRudolfs Mednis5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(6)0.9047.7%
2017-04-07Davis Cup G2 R2: RSA vs SLORRNicolaas ScholtzGrega Zemlja3-6 6-7(1) 7-6(6) 7-6(4) 7-6(7)0.9648.8%
2017-02-03Davis Cup G2 R1: TUR vs CYPRRMarsel IlhanPetros Chrysochos5-7 7-5 7-6(2) 6-40.9649.8%
2017-04-07Davis Cup WG QF: AUS vs USARRJordan ThompsonJack Sock6-3 3-6 7-6(4) 6-40.9751.6%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: BEL vs GERRRSteve DarcisPhilipp Kohlschreiber6-4 3-6 2-6 7-6(2) 7-6(5)0.9148.5%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: ESP vs CRORRFranco SkugorPablo Carreno Busta3-6 6-3 6-4 4-6 7-6(6)0.9549.5%
2017-02-03Davis Cup WG R1: RUS vs SRBRRViktor TroickiKaren Khachanov6-4 6-7(3) 6-3 1-6 7-6(6)1.0249.9%