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2016 Italy F10 F: Stefanos Tsitsipas d. Casper Ruud, 6-3 6-7(2) 7-6(2)  

Probability of winning the match from the perspective of Stefanos Tsitsipas (ST): (click to switch perspective)
 

 
Win Probability shows the odds of each player winning after every point of the match, based on the score up to that point and which player is serving. It makes no assumptions about the specific skill levels of each player, but does assume that the server has an advantage, which varies based on surface and gender. (For instance, men are assumed to win 64 percent of service points on hard courts.)

Volatility measures the importance of each point. It is equal to the difference in win probabilities between the server winning and losing the following point. 8 percent is exciting, 15 percent is crucial, and 25 percent is edge-of-your-seat stuff.

Situational Stats 

Stefanos Tsitsipas serving:        Casper Ruud serving:
Points   Won  Won%  Aces  Ace%   DFs   DF%Points   Won  Won%  Aces  Ace%   DFs   DF%
All Service Points1197865.5%43.4%43.4%All Service Points1187059.3%10.8%54.2%
  
Deuce Service Points634165.1%23.2%34.8%Deuce Service Points614167.2%11.6%23.3%
Ad Service Points563766.1%23.6%11.8%Ad Service Points572950.9%00.0%35.3%
  
Tiebreak Points9555.6%00.0%00.0%Tiebreak Points9555.6%00.0%111.1%
  
Break Points Faced11872.7%00.0%00.0%Break Points Faced9555.6%00.0%00.0%
Set Points On Serve22100.0%00.0%00.0%Set Points On Serve11100.0%00.0%00.0%
Set Points Faced On Serve0Set Points Faced On Serve0
Match Points On Serve11100.0%00.0%00.0%Match Points On Serve0
Match Points Faced On Serve0Match Points Faced On Serve0

 

Point-By-Point Recap

   Points   Win Prob (ST)   Win Prob (CR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 1, Game 1, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 0-0 sets, 0-0 games: 0-050.0%50.0%3.6%Won
15-051.4%48.6%2.7%Won
30-052.4%47.6%1.6%Lost
30-1551.4%48.6%3.4%Won
40-1552.7%47.3%1.5%Won
 
Set 1, Game 2, Casper Ruud serving, 0-0 sets, 0-1 games: 0-053.2%46.8%3.6%Won
15-051.9%48.1%2.7%Lost
15-1553.6%46.4%4.5%Won
30-1551.8%48.2%3.4%Lost
30-3053.9%46.1%6.4%Won
40-3051.5%48.5%3.9%Won
 
Set 1, Game 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 0-0 sets, 1-1 games: 0-050.0%50.0%3.9%Won
15-051.5%48.5%3.0%Won
30-052.6%47.4%1.8%Lost
30-1551.5%48.5%3.7%Won
40-1552.9%47.1%1.6%Won
 
Set 1, Game 4, Casper Ruud serving, 0-0 sets, 1-2 games: 0-053.5%46.5%3.9%Lost (double fault)
0-1556.0%44.0%5.4%Won
15-1553.9%46.1%5.0%Won
30-1552.0%48.0%3.7%Lost
30-3054.3%45.7%7.1%Lost
30-4058.7%41.3%11.5%Won
40-4054.3%45.7%7.1%Lost
40-AD58.7%41.3%11.5%Lost
 
Set 1, Game 5, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 0-0 sets, 3-1 games: 0-065.8%34.2%3.8%Won
15-067.3%32.7%2.9%Won
30-068.4%31.6%1.7%Lost
30-1567.3%32.7%3.6%Won
40-1568.7%31.3%1.6%Won
 
Set 1, Game 6, Casper Ruud serving, 0-0 sets, 1-4 games: 0-069.3%30.7%1.6%Lost
0-1570.2%29.8%2.2%Lost
0-3071.6%28.4%2.5%Won
15-3070.7%29.3%2.9%Won
30-3069.6%30.4%2.9%Lost
30-4071.3%28.7%4.7%Won
40-4069.6%30.4%2.9%Won
AD-4068.5%31.5%1.8%Won
 
Set 1, Game 7, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 0-0 sets, 4-2 games: 0-067.8%32.2%4.2%Lost
0-1565.2%34.8%5.8%Won
15-1567.4%32.6%5.4%Won
30-1569.4%30.6%4.0%Won (ace)
40-1571.0%29.0%1.8%Won
 
Set 1, Game 8, Casper Ruud serving, 0-0 sets, 2-5 games: 0-071.6%28.4%1.1%Lost
0-1572.3%27.7%1.5%Won
15-1571.7%28.3%1.4%Won
30-1571.2%28.8%1.0%Lost
30-3071.8%28.2%1.9%Won
40-3071.1%28.9%1.2%Lost
40-4071.8%28.2%1.9%Won
AD-4071.1%28.9%1.2%Won
 
Set 1, Game 9, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 0-0 sets, 5-3 games: 0-070.7%29.3%4.8%Lost
0-1567.7%32.3%6.6%Won
15-1570.2%29.8%6.1%Lost
15-3066.4%33.6%8.7%Lost
15-4061.0%39.0%8.7%Won
30-4064.3%35.7%14.1%Won
40-4069.7%30.3%8.6%Won
AD-4073.0%27.0%5.3%Won
 
   Points   Win Prob (ST)   Win Prob (CR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 2, Game 1, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 0-0 games: 0-075.0%25.0%3.6%Lost
0-1577.2%22.8%4.9%Won
15-1575.3%24.7%4.5%Lost (double fault)
15-3078.1%21.9%6.4%Won
30-3075.7%24.3%6.4%Won
40-3073.3%26.7%3.9%Lost
40-4075.7%24.3%6.4%Won
AD-4073.3%26.7%3.9%Won
 
Set 2, Game 2, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 0-1 games: 0-071.8%28.2%3.6%Won
15-073.1%26.9%2.7%Won
30-074.2%25.8%1.6%Lost
30-1573.2%26.8%3.4%Won
40-1574.4%25.6%1.5%Won
 
Set 2, Game 3, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 1-1 games: 0-075.0%25.0%3.9%Lost
0-1577.4%22.6%5.4%Lost
0-3080.8%19.2%6.1%Won
15-3078.5%21.5%7.1%Lost (double fault)
15-4082.9%17.1%7.1%Won
30-4080.1%19.9%11.5%Won
40-4075.8%24.2%7.1%Lost
40-AD80.1%19.9%11.5%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 4, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 2-1 games: 0-087.3%12.7%3.9%Won
15-088.8%11.2%3.0%Lost
15-1586.9%13.1%5.0%Lost (double fault)
15-3083.8%16.2%7.1%Lost
15-4079.4%20.6%7.1%Won
30-4082.1%17.9%11.5%Won
40-4086.5%13.5%7.1%Won
AD-4089.2%10.8%4.3%Lost
40-4086.5%13.5%7.1%Won
AD-4089.2%10.8%4.3%Lost
40-4086.5%13.5%7.1%Lost
40-AD82.1%17.9%11.5%Won
40-4086.5%13.5%7.1%Won
AD-4089.2%10.8%4.3%Lost
40-4086.5%13.5%7.1%Lost
40-AD82.1%17.9%11.5%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 5, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 2-2 games: 0-075.0%25.0%4.4%Won
15-073.3%26.7%3.4%Won
30-072.0%28.0%2.0%Lost
30-1573.3%26.7%4.2%Lost
30-3075.9%24.1%7.9%Lost
30-4080.8%19.2%13.0%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 6, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 3-2 games: 0-088.8%11.2%4.4%Won
15-090.5%9.5%3.4%Lost
15-1588.4%11.6%5.6%Lost
15-3084.9%15.1%8.0%Won
30-3088.0%12.0%7.9%Lost (double fault)
30-4083.0%17.0%13.0%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 7, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 3-3 games: 0-075.0%25.0%5.1%Lost
0-1578.2%21.8%7.0%Lost
0-3082.5%17.5%7.9%Won
15-3079.5%20.5%9.2%Won
30-3076.0%24.0%9.2%Won
40-3072.5%27.5%5.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 8, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 3-4 games: 0-070.4%29.6%5.1%Won
15-072.3%27.7%3.9%Lost
15-1569.9%30.1%6.5%Won
30-1572.4%27.6%4.8%Won
40-1574.2%25.8%2.1%Won
 
Set 2, Game 9, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 4-4 games: 0-075.0%25.0%6.2%Lost
0-1578.8%21.2%8.5%Won
15-1575.6%24.4%7.9%Won
30-1572.6%27.4%5.8%Won
40-1570.4%29.6%2.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 10, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 4-5 games: 0-069.4%30.6%6.2%Lost
0-1565.6%34.4%8.5%Won
15-1568.8%31.2%7.9%Lost
15-3063.9%36.1%11.2%Won
30-3068.2%31.8%11.1%Won
40-3072.4%27.6%6.8%Won
 
Set 2, Game 11, Casper Ruud serving, 0-1 sets, 5-5 games: 0-075.0%25.0%6.2%Won
15-072.7%27.3%4.7%Lost
15-1575.6%24.4%7.9%Won
30-1572.6%27.4%5.8%Won
40-1570.4%29.6%2.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 12, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-0 sets, 5-6 games: 0-069.4%30.6%6.2%Won (ace)
15-071.7%28.3%4.7%Won
30-073.5%26.5%2.8%Won
40-074.6%25.4%1.0%Won
 
Set 2, Game 13 (Tiebreak), 6-6 games:(CR) 0-075.0%25.0%11.6%Won
(ST) 0-170.6%29.4%11.6%Lost
(ST) 0-263.4%36.6%9.9%Won
(CR) 2-167.2%32.8%12.6%Lost
(CR) 2-275.0%25.0%14.0%Won
(ST) 2-369.7%30.3%14.0%Lost
(ST) 2-461.0%39.0%10.8%Lost
(CR) 5-254.3%45.7%7.6%Won
(CR) 6-251.4%48.6%3.7%Won
 
   Points   Win Prob (ST)   Win Prob (CR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 3, Game 1, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 0-0 games: 0-050.0%50.0%7.1%Won
15-052.7%47.3%5.5%Won (ace)
30-054.8%45.2%3.3%Won (ace)
40-056.0%44.0%1.1%Won
 
Set 3, Game 2, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 0-1 games: 0-056.4%43.6%7.1%Won
15-053.7%46.3%5.5%Lost
15-1557.1%42.9%9.1%Lost
15-3062.7%37.3%12.9%Won
30-3057.8%42.2%12.8%Lost
30-4065.8%34.2%20.9%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 3, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 2-0 games: 0-078.7%21.3%6.9%Won
15-081.4%18.6%5.3%Won
30-083.4%16.6%3.2%Won
40-084.6%15.4%1.1%Won
 
Set 3, Game 4, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 0-3 games: 0-085.0%15.0%3.7%Lost
0-1587.3%12.7%5.1%Won
15-1585.4%14.6%4.7%Won
30-1583.6%16.4%3.5%Lost (double fault)
30-3085.7%14.3%6.6%Won (ace)
40-3083.2%16.8%4.1%Lost
40-4085.7%14.3%6.6%Lost
40-AD89.8%10.2%10.8%Won
40-4085.7%14.3%6.6%Won
AD-4083.2%16.8%4.1%Lost
40-4085.7%14.3%6.6%Won
AD-4083.2%16.8%4.1%Won
 
Set 3, Game 5, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 3-1 games: 0-081.7%18.3%7.5%Lost
0-1577.0%23.0%10.4%Lost
0-3070.5%29.5%11.7%Lost
0-4063.3%36.7%8.5%Won
15-4066.5%33.5%13.8%Won
30-4071.7%28.3%22.2%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 6, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 2-3 games: 0-058.0%42.0%8.8%Won
15-054.6%45.4%6.8%Won
30-052.1%47.9%4.0%Won
40-050.5%49.5%1.4%Won
 
Set 3, Game 7, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 3-3 games: 0-050.0%50.0%10.2%Won
15-053.9%46.1%7.8%Won
30-056.9%43.1%4.7%Won
40-058.6%41.4%1.6%Lost
40-1557.6%42.4%4.3%Lost
40-3055.0%45.0%11.3%Lost (double fault)
40-4048.0%52.0%18.4%Won
AD-4055.0%45.0%11.3%Won
 
Set 3, Game 8, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 3-4 games: 0-059.3%40.7%10.2%Won
15-055.4%44.6%7.8%Lost
15-1560.2%39.8%13.0%Won
30-1555.3%44.7%9.7%Won
40-1551.6%48.4%4.3%Won
 
Set 3, Game 9, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 4-4 games: 0-050.0%50.0%12.4%Won
15-054.7%45.3%9.5%Won
30-058.3%41.7%5.7%Won
40-060.5%39.5%2.0%Won
 
Set 3, Game 10, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 4-5 games: 0-061.2%38.8%12.4%Won
15-056.5%43.5%9.5%Won
30-052.9%47.1%5.7%Won
40-050.7%49.3%2.0%Lost
40-1552.0%48.0%5.2%Lost
40-3055.2%44.8%13.7%Won
 
Set 3, Game 11, Stefanos Tsitsipas serving, 1-1 sets, 5-5 games: 0-050.0%50.0%12.4%Won
15-054.7%45.3%9.5%Won
30-058.3%41.7%5.7%Lost
30-1554.8%45.2%11.7%Won
40-1559.2%40.8%5.2%Lost (double fault)
40-3056.0%44.0%13.7%Lost
40-4047.6%52.4%22.3%Won
AD-4056.0%44.0%13.7%Lost
40-4047.6%52.4%22.3%Lost
40-AD33.7%66.3%36.3%Won
40-4047.6%52.4%22.3%Won
AD-4056.0%44.0%13.7%Lost
40-4047.6%52.4%22.3%Won
AD-4056.0%44.0%13.7%Won
 
Set 3, Game 12, Casper Ruud serving, 1-1 sets, 5-6 games: 0-061.2%38.8%12.4%Won
15-056.5%43.5%9.5%Lost
15-1562.4%37.6%15.7%Won
30-1556.4%43.6%11.7%Lost
30-3063.7%36.3%22.3%Won
40-3055.2%44.8%13.7%Lost
40-4063.7%36.3%22.3%Won
AD-4055.2%44.8%13.7%Won
 
Set 3, Game 13 (Tiebreak), 6-6 games:(ST) 0-050.0%50.0%23.2%Won
(CR) 0-158.8%41.2%23.2%Lost
(CR) 0-273.2%26.8%19.8%Won
(ST) 2-165.7%34.3%25.3%Won
(ST) 3-175.3%24.7%23.6%Lost
(CR) 2-360.7%39.3%28.0%Lost (double fault)
(CR) 2-478.0%22.0%21.6%Lost
(ST) 5-291.4%8.6%15.2%Won
(ST) 6-297.2%2.8%7.3%Won

 

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