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2016 London SF: Andy Murray d. Milos Raonic, 5-7 7-6(5) 7-6(9)  

Probability of winning the match from the perspective of Andy Murray (AM): (click to switch perspective)
 

 
Win Probability shows the odds of each player winning after every point of the match, based on the score up to that point and which player is serving. It makes no assumptions about the specific skill levels of each player, but does assume that the server has an advantage, which varies based on surface and gender. (For instance, men are assumed to win 64 percent of service points on hard courts.)

Volatility measures the importance of each point. It is equal to the difference in win probabilities between the server winning and losing the following point. 8 percent is exciting, 15 percent is crucial, and 25 percent is edge-of-your-seat stuff.

Situational Stats 

Andy Murray serving:        Milos Raonic serving:
Points   Won  Won%  Aces  Ace%   DFs   DF%Points   Won  Won%  Aces  Ace%   DFs   DF%
All Service Points1469162.3%64.1%64.1%All Service Points1288163.3%97.0%43.1%
  
Deuce Service Points744864.9%22.7%34.1%Deuce Service Points664365.2%69.1%23.0%
Ad Service Points724359.7%45.6%34.2%Ad Service Points623861.3%34.8%23.2%
  
Tiebreak Points161275.0%212.5%16.3%Tiebreak Points161062.5%318.8%00.0%
  
Break Points Faced12866.7%00.0%18.3%Break Points Faced7457.1%00.0%00.0%
Set Points On Serve2150.0%00.0%00.0%Set Points On Serve3133.3%00.0%00.0%
Set Points Faced On Serve11100.0%00.0%00.0%Set Points Faced On Serve3266.7%00.0%00.0%
Match Points On Serve100.0%00.0%00.0%Match Points On Serve0
Match Points Faced On Serve11100.0%00.0%00.0%Match Points Faced On Serve3266.7%00.0%00.0%

 

Point-By-Point Recap

   Points   Win Prob (AM)   Win Prob (MR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 1, Game 1, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 0-0 games: 0-050.0%50.0%3.4%Won
15-051.2%48.8%2.5%Won
30-052.1%47.9%1.4%Won
40-052.7%47.3%0.5%Won
 
Set 1, Game 2, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 0-1 games: 0-052.8%47.2%3.4%Won
15-051.6%48.4%2.5%Won
30-050.7%49.3%1.4%Lost
30-1551.6%48.4%3.2%Lost
30-3053.6%46.4%6.5%Won
40-3051.3%48.7%3.6%Won
 
Set 1, Game 3, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 1-1 games: 0-050.0%50.0%3.8%Won
15-051.4%48.6%2.8%Won
30-052.4%47.6%1.6%Won
40-052.9%47.1%0.5%Won
 
Set 1, Game 4, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 1-2 games: 0-053.1%46.9%3.8%Lost
0-1555.5%44.5%5.5%Won
15-1553.5%46.5%4.9%Won
30-1551.8%48.2%3.5%Won
40-1550.5%49.5%1.4%Won
 
Set 1, Game 5, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 2-2 games: 0-050.0%50.0%4.2%Won
15-051.5%48.5%3.1%Won
30-052.6%47.4%1.8%Lost
30-1551.5%48.5%3.9%Lost
30-3049.0%51.0%7.9%Won
40-3051.9%48.1%4.5%Lost
40-4049.0%51.0%7.9%Won
AD-4051.9%48.1%4.5%Lost
40-4049.0%51.0%7.9%Lost
40-AD43.9%56.1%14.1%Won
40-4049.0%51.0%7.9%Won
AD-4051.9%48.1%4.5%Won
 
Set 1, Game 6, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 2-3 games: 0-053.5%46.5%4.2%Won
15-052.0%48.0%3.1%Won
30-050.8%49.2%1.8%Won
40-050.2%49.8%0.6%Won (ace)
 
Set 1, Game 7, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 3-3 games: 0-050.0%50.0%4.8%Won
15-051.7%48.3%3.5%Won
30-053.0%47.0%2.0%Won
40-053.7%46.3%0.7%Won
 
Set 1, Game 8, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 3-4 games: 0-054.0%46.0%4.8%Won
15-052.2%47.8%3.5%Won (ace)
30-051.0%49.0%2.0%Lost (double fault)
30-1552.3%47.7%4.4%Won
40-1550.7%49.3%1.8%Won
 
Set 1, Game 9, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 4-4 games: 0-050.0%50.0%5.7%Won
15-052.0%48.0%4.2%Lost
15-1549.4%50.6%7.4%Won
30-1552.0%48.0%5.2%Lost (double fault)
30-3048.7%51.3%10.7%Lost
30-4041.8%58.2%19.0%Won
40-4048.7%51.3%10.7%Won
AD-4052.5%47.5%6.0%Lost
40-4048.7%51.3%10.7%Lost
40-AD41.8%58.2%19.0%Won
40-4048.7%51.3%10.7%Lost
40-AD41.8%58.2%19.0%Won
40-4048.7%51.3%10.7%Won
AD-4052.5%47.5%6.0%Lost
40-4048.7%51.3%10.7%Won
AD-4052.5%47.5%6.0%Won
 
Set 1, Game 10, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 4-5 games: 0-054.7%45.3%5.7%Won
15-052.6%47.4%4.2%Won
30-051.1%48.9%2.4%Lost
30-1552.7%47.3%5.2%Won
40-1550.8%49.2%2.2%Won
 
Set 1, Game 11, Andy Murray serving, 0-0 sets, 5-5 games: 0-050.0%50.0%5.7%Lost
0-1546.4%53.6%8.3%Won (ace)
15-1549.4%50.6%7.4%Lost
15-3044.6%55.4%11.2%Lost
15-4037.5%62.5%12.2%Lost (double fault)
 
Set 1, Game 12, Milos Raonic serving, 0-0 sets, 6-5 games: 0-029.7%70.3%5.7%Won
15-027.6%72.4%4.2%Won
30-026.1%73.9%2.4%Won
40-025.3%74.7%0.8%Lost
40-1525.8%74.2%2.2%Lost
40-3027.2%72.8%6.0%Won
 
   Points   Win Prob (AM)   Win Prob (MR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 2, Game 1, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 0-0 games: 0-025.0%75.0%3.4%Won
15-026.2%73.8%2.5%Lost
15-1524.6%75.4%4.5%Lost
15-3021.8%78.2%6.8%Won
30-3024.2%75.8%6.5%Won
40-3026.5%73.5%3.6%Lost
40-4024.2%75.8%6.5%Won
AD-4026.5%73.5%3.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 2, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 0-1 games: 0-027.8%72.2%3.4%Won
15-026.6%73.4%2.5%Won
30-025.7%74.3%1.4%Lost
30-1526.6%73.4%3.2%Lost
30-3028.6%71.4%6.5%Won
40-3026.3%73.7%3.6%Lost (double fault)
40-4028.6%71.4%6.5%Won
AD-4026.3%73.7%3.6%Lost
40-4028.6%71.4%6.5%Lost
40-AD32.8%67.2%11.5%Won
40-4028.6%71.4%6.5%Lost
40-AD32.8%67.2%11.5%Won
40-4028.6%71.4%6.5%Won (ace)
AD-4026.3%73.7%3.6%Lost
40-4028.6%71.4%6.5%Won
AD-4026.3%73.7%3.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 3, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 1-1 games: 0-025.0%75.0%3.8%Lost (double fault)
0-1522.6%77.4%5.5%Won
15-1524.6%75.4%4.9%Won
30-1526.3%73.7%3.5%Lost
30-3024.1%75.9%7.1%Lost
30-4019.6%80.4%12.6%Won
40-4024.1%75.9%7.1%Lost
40-AD19.6%80.4%12.6%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 4, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 2-1 games: 0-011.5%88.5%3.8%Lost
0-1513.9%86.1%5.5%Lost
0-3017.4%82.6%6.6%Lost
0-4021.7%78.3%5.2%Lost
 
Set 2, Game 5, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 2-2 games: 0-025.0%75.0%4.2%Won
15-026.5%73.5%3.1%Won
30-027.6%72.4%1.8%Won (ace)
40-028.3%71.7%0.6%Won
 
Set 2, Game 6, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 2-3 games: 0-028.5%71.5%4.2%Won
15-027.0%73.0%3.1%Lost
15-1528.9%71.1%5.5%Lost
15-3032.5%67.5%8.3%Won
30-3029.5%70.5%7.9%Lost
30-4034.5%65.5%14.1%Won
40-4029.5%70.5%7.9%Lost
40-AD34.5%65.5%14.1%Won
40-4029.5%70.5%7.9%Won
AD-4026.6%73.4%4.5%Lost
40-4029.5%70.5%7.9%Won
AD-4026.6%73.4%4.5%Won
 
Set 2, Game 7, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 3-3 games: 0-025.0%75.0%4.8%Lost (double fault)
0-1521.9%78.1%7.1%Won
15-1524.5%75.5%6.3%Lost
15-3020.5%79.5%9.5%Won
30-3023.9%76.1%9.1%Won
40-3027.1%72.9%5.1%Won
 
Set 2, Game 8, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 3-4 games: 0-029.0%71.0%4.8%Won
15-027.2%72.8%3.5%Won
30-026.0%74.0%2.0%Won
40-025.2%74.8%0.7%Won
 
Set 2, Game 9, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 4-4 games: 0-025.0%75.0%5.7%Won
15-027.0%73.0%4.2%Won
30-028.5%71.5%2.4%Lost
30-1527.0%73.0%5.2%Lost
30-3023.7%76.3%10.7%Won
40-3027.5%72.5%6.0%Won
 
Set 2, Game 10, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 4-5 games: 0-029.7%70.3%5.7%Lost
0-1533.3%66.7%8.3%Lost
0-3038.6%61.4%10.0%Won
15-3035.0%65.0%11.2%Won
30-3031.0%69.0%10.7%Won (ace)
40-3027.2%72.8%6.0%Won
 
Set 2, Game 11, Andy Murray serving, 0-1 sets, 5-5 games: 0-025.0%75.0%5.7%Won
15-027.0%73.0%4.2%Won
30-028.5%71.5%2.4%Lost
30-1527.0%73.0%5.2%Lost
30-3023.7%76.3%10.7%Won
40-3027.5%72.5%6.0%Lost
40-4023.7%76.3%10.7%Won
AD-4027.5%72.5%6.0%Lost
40-4023.7%76.3%10.7%Won
AD-4027.5%72.5%6.0%Lost
40-4023.7%76.3%10.7%Won
AD-4027.5%72.5%6.0%Won
 
Set 2, Game 12, Milos Raonic serving, 1-0 sets, 5-6 games: 0-029.7%70.3%5.7%Won (ace)
15-027.6%72.4%4.2%Won
30-026.1%73.9%2.4%Won
40-025.3%74.7%0.8%Lost
40-1525.8%74.2%2.2%Won
 
Set 2, Game 13 (Tiebreak), 6-6 games:(AM) 0-025.0%75.0%11.7%Won
(MR) 0-129.2%70.8%11.7%Lost
(MR) 0-236.7%63.3%9.8%Won (ace)
(AM) 2-133.2%66.8%12.8%Won
(AM) 3-137.8%62.2%12.0%Won
(MR) 1-442.1%57.9%8.1%Won (ace)
(MR) 2-439.2%60.8%10.6%Won
(AM) 4-335.3%64.7%16.1%Won
(AM) 5-341.1%58.9%14.4%Lost
(MR) 4-531.9%68.1%19.2%Won
(MR) 5-525.0%75.0%25.0%Lost
(AM) 6-541.0%59.0%25.0%Won
 
   Points   Win Prob (AM)   Win Prob (MR)   Volatility     Point Outcome
Set 3, Game 1, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 0-0 games: 0-050.0%50.0%6.9%Won
15-047.5%52.5%5.1%Won
30-045.7%54.3%2.9%Won (ace)
40-044.7%55.3%0.9%Won
 
Set 3, Game 2, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 0-1 games: 0-044.3%55.7%6.9%Lost
0-1539.9%60.1%10.1%Lost
0-3033.5%66.5%12.1%Won
15-3037.8%62.2%13.6%Won
30-3042.7%57.3%12.9%Lost
30-4034.4%65.6%23.0%Won
40-4042.7%57.3%12.9%Lost
40-AD34.4%65.6%23.0%Won
40-4042.7%57.3%12.9%Won
AD-4047.4%52.6%7.3%Lost
40-4042.7%57.3%12.9%Won
AD-4047.4%52.6%7.3%Won
 
Set 3, Game 3, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 1-1 games: 0-050.0%50.0%7.5%Lost
0-1554.8%45.2%11.1%Won
15-1550.8%49.2%9.8%Won
30-1547.3%52.7%7.0%Lost (double fault)
30-3051.8%48.2%14.2%Won
40-3046.6%53.4%8.0%Won
 
Set 3, Game 4, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 1-2 games: 0-043.8%56.2%7.5%Won
15-046.5%53.5%5.6%Won (ace)
30-048.5%51.5%3.2%Won
40-049.6%50.4%1.0%Won
 
Set 3, Game 5, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 2-2 games: 0-050.0%50.0%8.4%Won
15-047.0%53.0%6.2%Won
30-044.7%55.3%3.5%Won
40-043.5%56.5%1.2%Lost
40-1544.2%55.8%3.2%Lost (double fault)
40-3046.3%53.7%8.9%Won
 
Set 3, Game 6, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 2-3 games: 0-043.0%57.0%8.4%Won
15-046.1%53.9%6.2%Won
30-048.3%51.7%3.5%Lost
30-1546.1%53.9%7.8%Lost (double fault)
30-3041.1%58.9%15.8%Won
40-3046.8%53.2%8.9%Won
 
Set 3, Game 7, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 3-3 games: 0-050.0%50.0%9.6%Won
15-046.5%53.5%7.1%Lost
15-1551.1%48.9%12.5%Won
30-1546.6%53.4%8.9%Lost
30-3052.2%47.8%18.1%Won
40-3045.7%54.3%10.2%Won
 
Set 3, Game 8, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 3-4 games: 0-042.1%57.9%9.6%Lost
0-1535.9%64.1%14.1%Lost
0-3026.9%73.1%16.9%Won
15-3033.0%67.0%19.0%Won
30-3039.8%60.2%18.1%Won
40-3046.3%53.7%10.2%Lost
40-4039.8%60.2%18.1%Won
AD-4046.3%53.7%10.2%Won (ace)
 
Set 3, Game 9, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 4-4 games: 0-050.0%50.0%11.3%Lost
0-1557.3%42.7%16.6%Lost
0-3067.9%32.1%20.0%Lost
0-4080.7%19.3%15.6%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 10, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 5-4 games: 0-090.6%9.4%11.3%Lost
0-1583.4%16.6%16.6%Won
15-1589.4%10.6%14.8%Lost
15-3079.9%20.1%22.4%Lost
15-4065.6%34.4%24.3%Won
30-4074.3%25.7%38.0%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 11, Milos Raonic serving, 1-1 sets, 5-5 games: 0-050.0%50.0%11.3%Lost
0-1557.3%42.7%16.6%Lost
0-3067.9%32.1%20.0%Won
15-3060.7%39.3%22.4%Won
30-3052.6%47.4%21.4%Won
40-3045.0%55.0%12.0%Lost
40-4052.6%47.4%21.4%Lost
40-AD66.3%33.7%38.0%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 12, Andy Murray serving, 1-1 sets, 6-5 games: 0-090.6%9.4%11.3%Lost
0-1583.4%16.6%16.6%Lost
0-3072.7%27.3%20.0%Won
15-3079.9%20.1%22.4%Lost
15-4065.6%34.4%24.3%Lost
 
Set 3, Game 13 (Tiebreak), 6-6 games:(MR) 0-050.0%50.0%23.4%Lost
(AM) 1-065.0%35.0%23.4%Lost (double fault)
(AM) 1-150.0%50.0%25.5%Won
(MR) 1-259.2%40.8%25.5%Won
(MR) 2-250.0%50.0%28.3%Won (ace)
(AM) 2-339.8%60.2%28.3%Won (ace)
(AM) 3-350.0%50.0%32.3%Won
(MR) 3-461.6%38.4%32.3%Lost
(MR) 3-582.3%17.7%21.2%Won
(AM) 5-474.6%25.4%38.5%Lost
(AM) 5-550.0%50.0%50.0%Won
(MR) 5-668.0%32.0%50.0%Won
(MR) 6-650.0%50.0%50.0%Lost
(AM) 7-682.0%18.0%50.0%Lost
(AM) 7-750.0%50.0%50.0%Won (ace)
(MR) 7-868.0%32.0%50.0%Won
(MR) 8-850.0%50.0%50.0%Won
(AM) 8-932.0%68.0%50.0%Won
(AM) 9-950.0%50.0%50.0%Won
(MR) 9-1068.0%32.0%50.0%Lost

 

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