Italian translation at settesei.it
Of the 28 men in the ATP Houston main draw this week, 15 have a “USA” next to their names. The Americans include three of the top four seeds (John Isner, Sam Querrey, and Jack Sock), two of the four qualifiers (Stefan Kozlov and Denis Kudla) and one of the three wild cards (Mackenzie McDonald). The home-country dominance at the US Clay Court Championships hearkens back to earlier eras of professional tennis, when a few countries–the USA often first among them–dominated the ranks.
Those days are long gone, but this week’s turnout in Texas is the latest sign of an American resurgence. Sure, many top players are taking the week off, and plenty of European contenders opted for a similarly valuable event in Marrakech, so US players hardly represent half of the best ATPers. But 15 of 28–a main draw made up of such a high percentage of USAs–is something the tennis world hasn’t seen in a long time.
Going back five decades, there have been just over 400 ATP-level tournaments in which one country represented more than half of main draw entrants–an average of about eight events per year. The average is misleading, though: Houston is the first time it has happened since 2004, and there are only two previous instances in the last two decades. To find another draw so packed with Americans, we need to go back to 1996. Here are the last 20 tournaments in which one country represented more than half of main draw players:
Date Tourney Draw Country Count % 20040412 Valencia 32 ESP 20 62.5% 19990913 Mallorca 32 ESP 18 56.3% 19970908 Marbella 32 ESP 18 56.3% 19960930 Marbella 32 ESP 18 56.3% 19960212 San Jose 32 USA 17 53.1% 19951002 Valencia 32 ESP 18 56.3% 19950206 San Jose 32 USA 18 56.3% 19940214 Philadelphia 32 USA 18 56.3% 19940131 San Jose 32 USA 17 53.1% 19930802 Los Angeles 32 USA 17 53.1% 19930201 San Francisco 32 USA 19 59.4% 19920803 Los Angeles 32 USA 17 53.1% 19910708 Newport 32 USA 17 53.1% 19910506 Charlotte 32 USA 17 53.1% 19910401 Orlando 32 USA 20 62.5% 19900730 Los Angeles 32 USA 19 59.4% 19900507 Kiawah Island 32 USA 24 75.0% 19900402 Orlando 32 USA 17 53.1% 19900219 Philadelphia 48 USA 27 56.3% 19900212 Toronto Indoor 56 USA 30 53.6%
The four most recent tournaments took place in three different places, but were instances of the same event. The rest of the draws on this list suggest just how many good tennis players were produced in that era by the United States. In about 85% of the tournaments in which one country made up half or more of the field, the dominant nation was the USA. Australia accounts for another 50, all at tournaments in Oz, most of them before 1980. The US is the only country to fill up more than half of a draw outside of its own borders.
What makes this week’s feat in Houston even more remarkable is that the tournament’s organizers gave only one of the three wild cards to a local player. (The other two went to 4th seed Nick Kyrgios, who didn’t bother to enter via conventional means, and fan favorite Dustin Brown.) In other words, Americans would have accounted for half of the draw even without the aid of wild cards.
This more specialized feat–non-wild cards from one country accounting for half of the draw–is even rarer over the last 25 years or so. Of the 20 tournaments listed above, only nine met this more rigorous standard. The other 11 only cleared the bar with the aid of wild cards. The 2004 Valencia tournament still qualifies, but for the most recent instance on American soil, we need to go back more than 25 years, to the 1993 event in San Francisco. That tourney had good reason to retain at least one wild card for a foreigner, as the organizers managed to attract Bjorn Borg. Borg lost in the first round, and Andre Agassi took the championship with a final-round win over Brad Gilbert.
It remains to be seen whether the sheer force of numbers will be enough to keep the Houston title in American hands. (Steve Johnson, the sixth seed this week, won it last year.) Of the 400-plus events with more than half of players representing the same flag, the winner has come from that dominant country about 73% of the time. My model suggests it is a toss-up this week, with a 48.9% probability that a US player wins it all. One of the favorites, however, is Australian Nick Kyrgios, with nearly a 45% chance of winning himself. One dark horse is the most interesting of all: Fifth seed Fernando Verdasco won this event four years ago. And fourteen years ago in Valencia, the last time one country made up more than half of an ATP draw, Verdasco was the man who hoisted the trophy.