The field for the World Tour Finals next week is set, and the round robin groups are determined. That allows us to simulate the event, and–using my player ratings–project the outcome. (My ratings don’t yet incorporate Paris results. David Ferrer and Roger Federer may get mild boosts once their showings this week are considered.)
Obviously, Rafael Nadal is your favorite. He has a substantial advantage in every category. He’s more likely than any other contender to progress through the round robin stage undefeated, to reach the final four, to play in the title match, and to win the championship.
Not only is Nadal the best player in the field–even on hard courts–but he was also favored by the draw. For all of Ferrer’s success in Bercy, he is a weaker hard-court player than Juan Martin del Potro, who will play in Novak Djokovic‘s half during the round robin stage. Federer, despite his decline, is a still more of a hard-court threat than Tomas Berdych–and Nadal drew Berdych. The only disadvantage in Nadal’s fortunes is represented by Stanislas Wawrinka, who is considerably more dangerous than Richard Gasquet. As the forecast below shows, Gasquet is very unlikely to be a factor here.
Here is the complete forecast, showing each player’s chances of winning 3, 2, 1, or 0 matches in the round robin, along with reaching the semis, reaching the final, and winning the event:
Player 3-0 2-1 1-2 0-3 SF F W Nadal 35% 44% 18% 3% 81.0% 49.2% 31.1% Djokovic 25% 45% 26% 5% 70.8% 43.0% 25.0% Ferrer 8% 34% 42% 16% 42.4% 16.4% 6.0% Del Potro 15% 41% 35% 9% 55.9% 29.4% 14.1% Federer 11% 37% 39% 12% 48.4% 23.8% 10.7% Berdych 7% 32% 43% 18% 39.6% 15.2% 5.4% Wawrinka 6% 31% 43% 19% 37.0% 13.7% 4.8% Gasquet 4% 22% 45% 29% 24.9% 9.3% 3.1%
As I mentioned above, while Nadal (and, to a lesser extent, the other three members of his group) got the fortunate draw, the impact isn’t that great. Here is a “draw-neutral” forecast, which randomizes the group assignments with each simulation:
Player SF F W Nadal 77.9% 48.4% 30.2% Djokovic 74.4% 43.8% 25.7% Ferrer 40.6% 16.0% 5.9% del Potro 57.3% 30.2% 14.5% Federer 50.5% 24.4% 10.6% Berdych 37.7% 14.6% 5.3% Wawrinka 32.4% 12.4% 4.3% Gasquet 29.3% 10.2% 3.4%
The biggest losers in the draw ceremony were Djokovic and Gasquet. While Novak’s chances of reaching and winning the final are similar, the draw pushed his probability of surviving the round robin stage from 74.4% down to 70.8%. The odds are against Gasquet in any scenario, but the specific group assignments determined today knocked his chances of surviving the first three matches from 29.3% down to 24.9%.
The good news for Gasquet is that he’s a much, much better eight seed than Janko Tipsarevic was last year. And with Richie at the end of what may be his career year, it’s that much more likely that anyone in the field of eight could make things interesting this week.
[update: Thanks to Jovan M. for catching some dodgy numbers in the first table. Due to a coding error, I showed each player’s chances of reaching each win total to be too low. The SF/F/W columns in both tables are unchanged.]