Yesterday we saw who gained and lost from the French Open draw. Today we get to what you really care about: Each player’s odds of progressing through the tournament.
According to my ranking system, combined with the actual draw, this year’s favorite is … a tie. How’s that for a cop out–virtually even odds for Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, both with roughly 30% chances of winning the event. Roger Federer is in a distant third at 12%, with the unlikely Janko Tipsarevic far behind him in fourth with 5.7%. No one (including myself) cares much for Janko’s chances, but this is a man who has beaten both Djokovic and Tomas Berdych on clay. With the exception of David Ferrer (languishing as 8th favorite, below 3%), no one in the following pack has shown much clay-court consistency.
The highest-rated non-seeds are David Nalbandian, Thomaz Bellucci, and Marcos Baghdatis. Nalbandian, of course, has a probable second-rounder with Federer, but if he gets through it, he’ll have the benefits of Federer’s easy early-round draw. Baghdatis will have an early test in Nicolas Almagro, a man who is in form but may have spent his energy in the wrong French city. And Bellucci drew Viktor Troicki, one of the weakest seeds, despite the Serb’s strong showing in Dusseldorf this week.
The full odds are below. By Tuesday or Wednesday, I should have a page published that will update odds throughout the tournament.
Player R64 R32 R16 W
1 Novak Djokovic 96.6% 93.4% 88.1% 30.2%
Potito Starace 3.4% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0%
Blaz Kavcic 78.1% 4.5% 2.0% 0.0%
WC Lleyton Hewitt 21.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
q Filip Krajinovic 59.1% 18.6% 1.1% 0.0%
q Nicolas Devilder 40.9% 9.9% 0.4% 0.0%
q Michael Berrer 30.1% 17.8% 1.2% 0.0%
30 Jurgen Melzer 69.9% 53.7% 6.5% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
22 Andreas Seppi 56.5% 33.5% 16.1% 0.0%
Nikolay Davydenko 43.5% 23.0% 9.8% 0.0%
Mikhail Kukushkin 49.4% 21.3% 8.4% 0.0%
Ernests Gulbis 50.6% 22.2% 8.9% 0.0%
q Igor Sijsling 51.1% 15.2% 6.2% 0.0%
Gilles Muller 48.9% 14.3% 5.7% 0.0%
Steve Darcis 24.1% 12.3% 5.1% 0.0%
14 Fernando Verdasco 75.9% 58.2% 39.9% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
11 Gilles Simon 73.8% 59.4% 32.4% 0.3%
Ryan Harrison 26.2% 15.7% 5.1% 0.0%
Xavier Malisse 70.7% 20.5% 6.0% 0.0%
WC Brian Baker 29.3% 4.4% 0.7% 0.0%
Pablo Andujar 57.2% 13.7% 4.5% 0.0%
Victor Hanescu 42.8% 8.3% 2.3% 0.0%
Flavio Cipolla 15.4% 7.4% 2.1% 0.0%
18 Stanislas Wawrinka 84.6% 70.6% 46.8% 0.8%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
28 Viktor Troicki 41.9% 25.6% 6.2% 0.0%
Thomaz Bellucci 58.1% 39.7% 11.8% 0.0%
Fabio Fognini 54.9% 20.2% 3.9% 0.0%
WC Adrian Mannarino 45.1% 14.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 58.0% 9.3% 3.9% 0.0%
Joao Souza 42.0% 5.2% 1.8% 0.0%
q Andrey Kuznetsov 10.2% 5.1% 2.0% 0.0%
5 Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 89.8% 80.5% 68.0% 4.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
3 Roger Federer 93.5% 81.7% 73.8% 12.0%
Tobias Kamke 6.5% 2.2% 0.8% 0.0%
Adrian Ungur 24.7% 2.0% 0.8% 0.0%
David Nalbandian 75.3% 14.1% 9.0% 0.1%
Frank Dancevic 43.6% 17.7% 2.1% 0.0%
Martin Klizan 56.4% 25.9% 3.8% 0.0%
Nicolas Mahut 27.8% 11.0% 1.0% 0.0%
26 Andy Roddick 72.2% 45.4% 8.7% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
23 Radek Stepanek 46.6% 27.7% 13.2% 0.0%
LL David Goffin 53.4% 33.8% 17.3% 0.0%
WC Arnaud Clement 36.0% 10.9% 3.3% 0.0%
Alex Bogomolov Jr. 64.0% 27.5% 11.8% 0.0%
Karol Beck 33.9% 9.3% 3.1% 0.0%
Lukasz Kubot 66.1% 27.4% 13.6% 0.0%
q Florent Serra 26.0% 11.9% 4.7% 0.0%
15 Feliciano Lopez 74.0% 51.4% 32.9% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
9 Juan Martin Del Potro 87.7% 78.8% 63.9% 3.2%
Albert Montanes 12.3% 6.7% 2.6% 0.0%
E. Roger-Vasselin 50.0% 7.3% 2.6% 0.0%
Vasek Pospisil 50.0% 7.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Juan Carlos Ferrero 63.6% 27.3% 6.6% 0.0%
WC J. Dasnieres De Veigy 36.4% 11.3% 2.0% 0.0%
q D. Munoz-De La Nava 21.4% 7.9% 1.2% 0.0%
21 Marin Cilic 78.6% 53.5% 18.5% 0.1%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
31 Kevin Anderson 70.0% 50.1% 15.9% 0.0%
Rui Machado 30.0% 15.8% 2.9% 0.0%
WC Eric Prodon 41.2% 12.2% 1.8% 0.0%
q Horacio Zeballos 58.8% 21.9% 4.3% 0.0%
Michael Llodra 46.9% 10.0% 5.2% 0.0%
Guillermo Garcia-Lopez 53.1% 12.5% 6.8% 0.0%
Dudi Sela 12.3% 4.8% 2.1% 0.0%
7 Tomas Berdych 87.7% 72.6% 61.0% 2.3%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
6 David Ferrer 84.0% 70.2% 55.9% 2.4%
Lukas Lacko 16.0% 7.8% 3.4% 0.0%
Benoit Paire 49.1% 10.7% 4.7% 0.0%
Albert Ramos 50.9% 11.2% 5.0% 0.0%
Ivan Dodig 56.2% 31.3% 10.5% 0.0%
Robin Haase 43.8% 21.6% 6.2% 0.0%
James Blake 31.1% 10.6% 2.0% 0.0%
27 Mikhail Youzhny 68.9% 36.5% 12.2% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
20 Marcel Granollers 66.9% 44.7% 22.7% 0.1%
q Joao Sousa 33.1% 16.4% 5.9% 0.0%
Malek Jaziri 45.3% 16.6% 5.6% 0.0%
Philipp Petzschner 54.7% 22.3% 8.6% 0.0%
WC Paul-Henri Mathieu 50.0% 11.4% 3.7% 0.0%
Bjorn Phau 50.0% 11.4% 3.6% 0.0%
q Rogerio Dutra Silva 18.5% 9.7% 3.4% 0.0%
10 John Isner 81.5% 67.5% 46.5% 0.5%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
16 Alexandr Dolgopolov 70.8% 58.8% 27.9% 0.2%
Sergiy Stakhovsky 29.3% 19.4% 5.7% 0.0%
Filippo Volandri 62.9% 15.5% 3.2% 0.0%
q Tommy Haas 37.1% 6.2% 0.9% 0.0%
Donald Young 43.2% 9.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Grigor DiMitrov 56.8% 15.5% 6.8% 0.0%
q Jurgen Zopp 17.8% 8.5% 3.3% 0.0%
17 Richard Gasquet 82.2% 66.2% 48.5% 1.4%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
25 Bernard Tomic 73.8% 47.6% 17.1% 0.1%
q Andreas Haider-Maurer 26.2% 10.4% 1.9% 0.0%
Santiago Giraldo 63.3% 29.5% 8.5% 0.0%
Alejandro Falla 36.7% 12.5% 2.4% 0.0%
Jarkko Nieminen 48.3% 8.4% 3.2% 0.0%
Igor Andreev 51.7% 9.8% 3.8% 0.0%
Tatsuma Ito 8.9% 3.4% 0.9% 0.0%
4 Andy Murray 91.1% 78.4% 62.1% 3.8%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
8 Janko Tipsarevic 82.5% 72.8% 64.6% 5.7%
Sam Querrey 17.5% 10.7% 6.7% 0.0%
Jeremy Chardy 64.0% 12.2% 6.9% 0.0%
Yen-Hsun Lu 36.0% 4.3% 1.8% 0.0%
Dmitry Tursunov 49.3% 17.2% 2.5% 0.0%
Go Soeda 50.7% 17.9% 2.5% 0.0%
q Mischa Zverev 34.1% 18.6% 3.1% 0.0%
29 Julien Benneteau 65.9% 46.3% 11.8% 0.0%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
24 Philipp Kohlschreiber 70.5% 47.1% 23.0% 0.1%
Matthew Ebden 29.5% 13.5% 3.9% 0.0%
Olivier Rochus 41.2% 14.2% 4.1% 0.0%
Leonardo Mayer 58.8% 25.1% 9.2% 0.0%
Juan Ignacio Chela 29.5% 9.0% 3.6% 0.0%
Marcos Baghdatis 70.5% 34.8% 21.1% 0.1%
Paolo Lorenzi 21.6% 7.0% 2.5% 0.0%
12 Nicolas Almagro 78.4% 49.2% 32.5% 0.2%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
13 Juan Monaco 69.3% 48.7% 23.3% 0.1%
WC Guillaume Rufin 30.7% 15.7% 4.9% 0.0%
Lukas Rosol 52.5% 19.2% 6.0% 0.0%
Carlos Berlocq 47.5% 16.4% 4.9% 0.0%
q Jesse Levine 50.8% 10.1% 3.2% 0.0%
Benjamin Becker 49.2% 9.6% 2.9% 0.0%
Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo 13.4% 6.3% 1.8% 0.0%
19 Milos Raonic 86.6% 74.0% 52.9% 0.6%
Player R64 R32 R16 W
32 Florian Mayer 71.3% 50.2% 7.5% 0.1%
Daniel Gimeno-Traver 28.7% 13.8% 1.0% 0.0%
q Eduardo Schwank 43.4% 14.2% 1.0% 0.0%
Ivo Karlovic 56.6% 21.8% 1.9% 0.0%
Igor Kunitsyn 31.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Denis Istomin 68.3% 4.9% 2.2% 0.0%
Simone Bolelli 3.8% 1.8% 0.7% 0.0%
2 Rafael Nadal 96.2% 92.1% 85.3% 30.4%