Every 2nd-rounder in Miami is between a seed and a non-seed, so we’re on full-time upset watch for the next two days. (Barring withdrawals, anyway.) There are plenty to keep an eye out for:
- Guillermo Garcia-Lopez vs Viktor Troicki. Troicki has never been a very convincing seed, and GGL is coming off of a big win over Andy Murray at Indian Wells. Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than the Spainard.
- Bernard Tomic vs David Ferrer. The surface is on Tomic’s side; everything else tilts to Ferrer. But my algorithm like’s the Aussie’s chances, setting the match awfully close to equal.
- Nicolas Almagro vs David Goffin. 62/38 usually doesn’t qualify as an upset-in-the-making. This one’s closer than I would’ve expected, thanks to Almagro’s inconsistency on hardcourts. Goffin doesn’t have much in the way of weapons, but that didn’t stop him from taking out Donald Young yesterday.
- Kevin Anderson vs Sam Querrey. Almost dead-even. As if you didn’t already one this one would be decided in two or three tiebreaks.
- David Nalbandian vs Janko Tipsarevic. In case you ever need an example of when ATP rankings aren’t enough. My algorithm gives Nalbandian the slight edge; I have to imagine that any fan would give the Argentine a bigger one.
- Nikolay Davydenko vs John Isner. I have this one set at 69/31 in Isner’s favor, but Davydenko does have the sort of game that gives the big man trouble.
Here’s the full table:
Player R32 R16 QF W (1)Novak Djokovic 79.9% 68.5% 57.5% 21.5% Marcos Baghdatis 20.1% 12.1% 7.0% 0.5% (q)Guillermo Garcia Lopez 46.0% 8.3% 3.8% 0.1% (27)Viktor Troicki 54.0% 11.0% 5.4% 0.2% (17)Richard Gasquet 65.6% 40.8% 12.6% 0.9% Cedrik-Marcel Stebe 34.4% 16.3% 3.3% 0.1% Albert Ramos 25.6% 6.5% 0.8% 0.0% (15)Feliciano Lopez 74.4% 36.4% 9.5% 0.4% Player R32 R16 QF W (11)Juan Martin Del Potro 77.9% 56.3% 38.7% 6.0% Ivo Karlovic 22.1% 9.8% 3.8% 0.1% Igor Kunitsyn 22.3% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0% (23)Marin Cilic 77.7% 30.3% 15.6% 0.8% (30)Julien Benneteau 63.0% 24.0% 8.3% 0.2% Benjamin Becker 37.0% 9.8% 2.5% 0.0% Bernard Tomic 45.7% 29.3% 12.7% 0.7% (5)David Ferrer 54.3% 36.9% 17.6% 1.3% Player R32 R16 QF W (3)Roger Federer 81.7% 64.4% 46.7% 12.2% (WC)Ryan Harrison 18.3% 8.4% 3.2% 0.1% Gilles Muller 30.2% 5.3% 1.6% 0.0% (31)Andy Roddick 69.8% 21.9% 10.5% 0.6% (21)Juan Monaco 65.0% 26.0% 8.0% 0.3% Yen-Hsun Lu 35.0% 9.4% 1.9% 0.0% (q)Sergei Bubka 18.9% 7.0% 1.4% 0.0% (14)Gael Monfils 81.1% 57.6% 26.6% 3.2% Player R32 R16 QF W (12)Nicolas Almagro 62.1% 35.3% 17.3% 0.7% (q)David Goffin 37.9% 17.3% 6.3% 0.1% (q)Bjorn Phau 24.9% 7.1% 1.8% 0.0% (20)Fernando Verdasco 75.1% 40.2% 19.1% 0.7% (28)Kevin Anderson 51.3% 23.3% 12.1% 0.4% Sam Querrey 48.7% 21.6% 11.0% 0.3% (q)Frank Dancevic 23.9% 8.1% 2.9% 0.0% (8)Mardy Fish 76.1% 47.1% 29.5% 2.1% Player R32 R16 QF W (7)Tomas Berdych 81.5% 63.9% 40.1% 4.6% Nicolas Mahut 18.5% 8.8% 2.5% 0.0% Grigor Dimitrov 74.3% 23.6% 8.6% 0.1% (29)Juan Ignacio Chela 25.7% 3.7% 0.6% 0.0% (18)Alexandr Dolgopolov 83.4% 40.1% 19.0% 1.0% (q)Antonio Veic 16.6% 2.5% 0.4% 0.0% David Nalbandian 51.3% 29.6% 15.0% 0.9% (9)Janko Tipsarevic 48.7% 27.8% 13.7% 0.7% Player R32 R16 QF W (13)Gilles Simon 73.8% 45.2% 16.6% 1.1% (q)Roberto Bautista Agut 26.2% 9.5% 1.8% 0.0% Robin Haase 40.9% 16.4% 3.7% 0.1% (22)Jurgen Melzer 59.1% 28.9% 8.8% 0.3% (26)Milos Raonic 79.5% 26.2% 15.1% 0.9% (q)Arnaud Clement 20.5% 2.7% 0.7% 0.0% Alejandro Falla 14.1% 5.2% 2.0% 0.0% (4)Andy Murray 85.9% 65.9% 51.4% 12.6% Player R32 R16 QF W (6)Jo-Wilfried Tsonga 79.2% 57.5% 36.3% 4.6% Xavier Malisse 20.8% 8.8% 2.7% 0.0% Frederico Gil 22.4% 3.7% 0.7% 0.0% (32)Philipp Kohlschreiber 77.6% 30.1% 13.6% 0.5% (19)Florian Mayer 58.7% 26.8% 12.0% 0.6% Ivan Dodig 41.3% 15.7% 5.8% 0.1% Nikolay Davydenko 31.4% 14.0% 5.1% 0.1% (10)John Isner 68.6% 43.5% 23.7% 2.2% Player R32 R16 QF W (16)Kei Nishikori 67.7% 44.1% 18.9% 1.7% Lukas Lacko 32.3% 15.3% 4.3% 0.1% Lukas Rosol 30.8% 8.6% 1.8% 0.0% (24)Marcel Granollers 69.2% 32.0% 11.0% 0.5% (25)Radek Stepanek 81.6% 17.4% 6.4% 0.1% Tommy Haas 18.4% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% Santiago Giraldo 17.9% 10.6% 4.4% 0.1% (2)Rafael Nadal 82.2% 70.9% 53.1% 13.2%
Interesting to see how the probability of winning the tournament of the Big four is getting closer… specially between the later trio
Love to read your projections, but the algorithm can’t be right if Federer has less chance to win the tournament than Murray. That’s ridiculous.
Furthermore, Almagro inconsistent on HC? You obviously didn’t follow him this year.
Anderson-Querrey dead even? What did Querrey achieve this year?
“Qualifiers don’t come any tougher than GGL”, you gotta be kidding me…
You keep saying ‘this year’ — and that’s why we need algorithms as well as fans watching the game. Players don’t perform exactly like they did last week or last month. If an algorithm looked just at the last three months, we’d have a great index of hotness, but it wouldn’t do as well predicting match outcomes.
Anderson/Querrey even isn’t so much a vote of confidence in Sam as it is lack of confidence in KA, plus a little home-court advantage.
My rankings have Fed and Murray almost dead even on hard courts, in part because Murray has beaten Djokovic recently.
I can agree on you on Anderson/Querrey, but really not on Federer/Murray. Federer has everything in his favour to put him way ahead of Murray. Better form, better quality, better history in Miami, better h2h with Murray, higher ranking, etc.
Besides, if you include the Murray win against Djokovic in Dubai, why is Djokovic then so high above Nadal and Federer? I think these three should be almost even favourites this tournament. Djokovic maybe with the slight edge over Federer and Nadal a little under that.