While Roger Federer still holds a very slight edge in my hard-court rankings, Novak Djokovic is the favorite to win in Miami. My simulation gives the Serbian a 27.4% chance of winning back-to-back tournaments, while Federer comes in at 19.7%.
For more background on how I generate these projections, click here. I’ve tweaked the system a bit since then; most notably, I discovered that my rankings were slightly underrating the chances of younger players and overrating those of older players. I’ve adjusted my forecasts accordingly.
Enjoy!
Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (1)Rafael Nadal 100% 84% 76.8% 62.0% 48.8% 28.5% 14.3% Jeremy Chardy 50% 9% 5.2% 2.3% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Kei Nishikori 50% 8% 4.5% 1.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Feliciano Lopez 69% 43% 7.3% 2.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% Richard Berankis 31% 12% 1.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (26)Juan I Chela 100% 45% 4.8% 1.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% (21)Dolgopolov 100% 74% 40.0% 12.8% 5.8% 1.7% 0.4% Andreas Seppi 52% 14% 4.3% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Mischa Zverev 48% 12% 3.7% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Teymuraz Gabashvili 44% 9% 2.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Daniel Brands 56% 13% 3.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (15)JW Tsonga 100% 78% 45.9% 14.4% 7.5% 2.6% 0.6% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (11)Nicolas Almagro 100% 87% 54.4% 25.3% 8.3% 2.7% 0.6% Federico Gil 61% 10% 2.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Paul Capdeville 39% 4% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Leonardo Mayer 35% 12% 3.6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (WC)Ivo Karlovic 65% 30% 11.7% 4.2% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% (20)Albert Montanes 100% 58% 26.7% 9.5% 2.5% 0.6% 0.1% (28)Ernests Gulbis 100% 91% 34.6% 17.1% 5.0% 1.3% 0.3% Carlos Berlocq 82% 8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (WC)Jack Sock 18% 1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Adrian Mannarino 72% 11% 3.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Ramirez Hidalgo 28% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (7)Tomas Berdych 100% 89% 61.4% 41.5% 17.4% 7.5% 2.3% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (3)Roger Federer 100% 92% 80.4% 64.1% 50.0% 34.3% 19.7% Fabio Fognini 39% 3% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Radek Stepanek 61% 5% 2.5% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Sergiy Stakhovsky 56% 18% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Grigor Dimitrov 44% 11% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (32)Juan Monaco 100% 70% 13.0% 5.5% 2.2% 0.6% 0.1% (22)Marcos Baghdatis 100% 85% 54.0% 18.1% 9.6% 4.0% 1.1% Blaz Kavcic 43% 7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Olivier Rochus 57% 8% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pere Riba 39% 6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Yen-Hsun Lu 61% 14% 2.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (13)Mikhail Youzhny 100% 81% 38.9% 9.7% 4.3% 1.4% 0.3% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (10)Jurgen Melzer 100% 76% 37.0% 16.3% 4.8% 1.8% 0.4% Philipp Petzschner 64% 18% 3.9% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Florent Serra 36% 6% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Janko Tipsarevic 57% 15% 6.5% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Robin Haase 43% 7% 2.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (18)Marin Cilic 100% 78% 49.1% 26.4% 9.1% 4.0% 1.2% (25)Gilles Simon 100% 78% 34.7% 16.9% 4.7% 1.4% 0.3% (WC)Ryan Harrison 62% 17% 3.7% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Rainer Schuettler 38% 5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pablo Cuevas 52% 10% 3.9% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Michael Berrer 48% 6% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (8)Andy Roddick 100% 83% 55.3% 33.9% 13.5% 6.4% 2.3% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (6)David Ferrer 100% 96% 65.3% 40.1% 18.5% 5.9% 2.5% (q)Robert Kendrick 49% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Igor Kunitsyn 51% 2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Somdev Devvarman 49% 6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Potito Starace 51% 8% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (31)Milos Raonic 100% 86% 32.6% 16.0% 5.9% 1.6% 0.5% (23)Michael Llodra 100% 67% 26.5% 9.1% 2.6% 0.5% 0.1% Xavier Malisse 67% 25% 5.6% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Ryan Sweeting 33% 8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Benjamin Becker 54% 9% 3.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Marcel Granollers 46% 8% 2.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (12)Stan Wawrinka 100% 83% 60.3% 32.1% 14.5% 4.5% 1.8% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (14)Mardy Fish 100% 73% 40.4% 12.3% 5.5% 1.4% 0.4% Julien Benneteau 61% 18% 6.0% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Gimeno-Traver 39% 8% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Ivan Ljubicic 85% 39% 19.3% 4.8% 1.7% 0.3% 0.1% (q)Paolo Lorenzi 15% 1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (17)Richard Gasquet 100% 60% 32.3% 9.5% 4.0% 0.8% 0.2% (29)Kohlschreiber 100% 16% 5.1% 2.2% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% (PR)Del Potro 100% 83% 50.8% 38.6% 25.8% 11.5% 6.1% Richardo Mello 0% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Ivan Dodig 38% 5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Andrey Golubev 62% 12% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (4)Robin Soderling 100% 84% 42.1% 31.0% 20.1% 8.5% 4.2% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (5)Andy Murray 100% 99% 87.6% 65.1% 30.5% 18.9% 10.8% Victor Hanescu 55% 0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Alex Bogomolov 45% 0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Santiago Giraldo 56% 21% 2.4% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Igor Andreev 44% 15% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (30)John Isner 100% 65% 8.9% 3.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% (24)Garcia-Lopez 100% 35% 15.9% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% Nikolay Davydenko 87% 61% 39.6% 15.1% 4.9% 2.3% 1.0% Kevin Anderson 13% 3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (WC)Bernard Tomic 68% 11% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Pablo Andujar 32% 3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (9)Verdasco 100% 86% 41.5% 12.0% 3.1% 1.1% 0.4% Player R64 R32 R16 QF SF F W (16)Viktor Troicki 100% 77% 43.0% 5.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% Tobias Kamke 51% 13% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Marsel Ilhan 49% 10% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Jarkko Nieminen 59% 22% 9.6% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Mikhail Kukushkin 41% 12% 4.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% (19)Sam Querrey 100% 66% 37.4% 6.6% 1.9% 0.5% 0.1% (27)Thomaz Bellucci 100% 69% 8.5% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% (q)Michael Russell 31% 7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (WC)James Blake 69% 25% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (q)Donald Young 47% 3% 1.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Denis Istomin 53% 0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% (2)Novak Djokovic 100% 97% 89.7% 81.5% 55.9% 41.2% 27.4%
I was surprised to see that you predicted Del Potro had a 100% chance of defeating Ricardo Mello. Was that because Del Potro had already won their match by the time you published your predictions?
Yep, that caught my eye too. It was actually 99.55%, but there wasn’t room to fit all those columns with the extra significant digit.
Thanks for the explanation! As a fan of JMDP I am gratified, but that’s nothing compared to the relief I feel at having the paradox resolved. Had Del Potro’s chance of winning been exactly 100% a priori, and had he been unable to complete the match for any reason, the universe might have collapsed.
😎